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Need to Know: How many wins for the 2016 Redskins?

May 10, 2016, 5:29 AM EDT


Here is what you need to know on this Tuesday, May 10, three days before the Washington Redskins hold their rookie minicamp.


—The Redskins last played a game 121 days ago. It will be 125 days until they host the Steelers in their 2016 season opener.

Days until: Rookie minicamp 3; OTAs start 14; Redskins training camp starts 80

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The Redskins have most of their personnel in place. The schedule is set. All that stands between the team and the start of the regular season are some more sessions in shorts and helmets, a month of vacation, and training camp. It’s time to break out the imaginary $100 in casino chips and bet them on how many regular season games the Redskins will win in 2016.

0-6 wins, $10—I think they are out of this territory for now, with a strong enough base of talent to keep out of double-digit losses. Only a run of very bad luck would have them crash back into the top 10 in the draft.

7-8 wins, $35—Yes, this would represent a decrease from last year. But improvement in the NFL is rarely linear. There are ebbs and flows, peaks and valleys, not just from game to game but also from season to season. They could hit a plateau in their development and slide back a bit because of bad luck and a tougher schedule. It wouldn’t be a disaster or mean they have to start again from the bottom, although many fans and some branches of the local media would treat it as such.

9-10 wins, $40—Perhaps this would be treading water but it depends on what it looks like. If they win a few games in blowouts and beat some winning teams, both at home and on the road, it would be seen as an improvement. If they struggle to beat bad teams and many of the issues on display in 2015 persist they would still have a long way to go before being considered true contenders.

11-12 wins, $10—This would almost assuredly result in a playoff spot, and probably a division title. This could happen if Kirk Cousins takes another big leap forward, the running game becomes at least competent, and the defense picks things up a few notches, especially against the run.

13+ wins, $5—I’ll throw five bucks on the chance that everything that would be needed to win in double digits happens along with the pass rush trio of Galette, Kerrigan, and Smith truly terrorizing opposing quarterbacks and a solid dose of good luck, like excellent health, facing some teams when they are suffering from key injuries, and a few fortuitous bounces of the ball.

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  1. colorofmyskinz - May 10, 2016 at 6:26 AM

    We will know after the steelers game. That is a good team better than middle of the pack. If we handle them well, I say 10+.

    If it is a close game and we lose I say 9-10. If they manhandle us, we ebb and flow and we most likely see 7-9.

    But I would place my money on 10 – 11. With us closer to 11.

    Last year Kirk had zero first team reps through our last preseason game. He is having first team reps all the way back in the weight room now (mentally). Kirk will be on fire and look like the end of the season, not the beginning of last year.

    Defense is MUCH better going into this season vs. last season. We actually have cornerback league bests and depth. We actually have depth at safety and OLB. I would say DLine is just as good as last year (only area we need better growth). But, with the improvements at corner and safety our front 7 will look much better. The depth is amazing.

    Offense actually got much better and deeper at WR / TE, amazing! We have the best receiving Corp in the NFL period hands down. Running back we have lost ground. But, the receiving Corp alone will improve it. Then look at Oline with second year under Callahan. Wow. Better offense as well with depth except RB.

    So defense and offense improved with depth all over the team except RB. I say better results this year than last year by 15% at least.

    I go 11! Welcome to the playoffs!


    • troylok - May 10, 2016 at 7:26 AM

      I am with everything you say but we have to consider the other teams in our division and their development, too. The Cowboys will have a healthy Romo and Bryant returning to the lineup and they got a beast running back in the draft, too. Honestly,, I don’t believe the hype that says the Cowboys will win the division because the defense is still suspect, but they always play Washington tough. I think it is a rebuilding year(s) for the Eagles but a healthy Giants team could be a big problem for everyone. The unknown there is the coaching. Frankly, I see it come down to the Redskins or the Giants with our now-veteran head coach giving Washington the edge.

      • Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:40 PM

        I think we got the DBs that can handle the NFC east wide receivers… My worries is kirk cousins development and the teams we face outside the division Packers,Bengals,Steelers,Ravens,Vikings those thats what worry me I’m not worried about our division opponents

        • lezziemcdykerson - May 11, 2016 at 7:07 PM

          Yeah safe to say with this draft a lot of defenses got better there are probably teams on our schedule we’re looking at now as a win that could be outplaying their expectations by the time we face them.

      • Skulb - May 11, 2016 at 5:59 AM

        The Cowboys are run by a chinless cretin. Let me explain:
        The Dallas run game was already good. On a scale from 1 to 10 it was at least an eight, and they added Morris to that, who is an excellent fit for their scheme. Maybe they were a 9/10 before they drafted Elliot. So marginal improvement, despite his talent.
        Meanwhile our corners were, to be generous, something 5/10 last year. Adding Norman there might raise it to 9/10 all by itself. Drastic improvement. The Dallas defense is probably a solid 3/10 and they draft a running back. We should all be wearing party hats.
        And Romo will never last a full season and neither will Dez probably. And neither of them was very good last year when they were playing. Dallas are looking done to me. I’m more worried about the Giants. Even the Eagles, who have a good defense at least, look less poised to fall over the cliff than Dallas does.

    • babyteal1 - May 10, 2016 at 7:29 AM

      I love the optimism!! HTTR!!!

    • bangkokben - May 10, 2016 at 8:17 PM

      The Pittsburgh game is irrelevant. Last year the 49ers clobbered the Vikings on national television the opening week of the season and both of those teams ended up in the directions the majority believed they were heading prior to that game. There may be a measuring stick game on the schedule but it is certainly not the first one. Too much can — and does — happen over the course of a season.

      • lezziemcdykerson - May 11, 2016 at 7:03 PM

        Monday night VS the Steelers, which yeah it’s at FEDEX but we know it’ll be damn near a home game for the pitts, isn’t a measuring stick game? We won’t be able to see if Josh Norman was really worth the price tag (since some nitpicked because he’s a cover three guy not really a man guy) when we’re facing AB? We won’t be able to see if the front seven is finding it’s stride against Bell, Williams and a lumbering scrambling QB? Not saying it’s the most important game of the year or that if we won it’d be a signature game or anything but it’ll definitely be a good test to see where we’re at kick off weekend. Anytime you’re facing a SB winning QB you are up against the standard… unless it’s Eli. Oh Eli… Ima kinda miss lobster face this season. Got a towel from that Nov 29th game

        • bangkokben - May 12, 2016 at 7:19 AM

          Sure, we can piss and moan if things don’t go our way but as far as it fatalistically determining the course of the season (what i was responding to), no. Whether we win or lose that game AND how we play WILL NOT determine the course or record of the season. Losing against Miami didn’t last year and winning or losing against Pittsburgh won’t either.

        • lezziemcdykerson - May 12, 2016 at 3:35 PM

          Because Kirk didn’t get a full offseason with first team reps a year of continuity with his receivers. The O-line was in their first year under coach Callahan and moses and scherff were new pieces. Hard to have a measuring stick game week 1 with that many variables not to mention Tannehill is probably more comparable to Cousins as far as perceived development. No one expected to either to tear it up.

          What I’m saying is now that we have an O-line let’s see how much they’ve gelled when they face a guy like Heyward. We can assess our young guys on the o line’s progress. See how Kirk responds playing in a hostile HOME environment. See how fast D Jax is now that he’s healthy. I specifically said this isn’t a staple game whether we win or not. It won’t determine our season. However to say that we can’t measure progress from last year’s success to this year’s OTA’s and preseason versus a team that’s a perennial playoff team lead by a SB winning QB. Kirk is getting elite money let’s see how he stacks up against elite talent. We didn’t beat a team with a winning record at all last year. No one will have a record week one but still a great game to see how far we’ve come and how far we need to go.

        • bangkokben - May 12, 2016 at 5:12 PM

          Yes, we get to see all that stuff and make typical NFL knee-jerk reactions to one week. I’m excited to participate in it as well and we can compare our team to the Stillers of the past. Yada, yada, yada. Again, I was responding to “color’s” response to the topic: How many wins will the Redskins have? His repsonse: “We will know after the steelers game. …If….If…If” That is how I disagree with it being a “measuring stick” game. I think that there are games that one can chart the season by and this one isn’t one of those games. That’s all. Poor choice of words on my part for giving the implication that we can’t assess our team.

        • lezziemcdykerson - May 12, 2016 at 6:24 PM

          Ok. I just saw “The Pittsburgh game is irrelevant” and thought like huuuuuh?

    • lezziemcdykerson - May 11, 2016 at 6:42 PM

      “I would say DLine is just as good as last year (only area we need better growth). But, with the improvements at corner and safety our front 7 will look much better. The depth is amazing.”

      Yes to all of this. The Steelers will be a good measuring stick. Pre draft, well I guess to be specific post-knighton-goes-to-NE, I kept preaching we didn’t have to throw the whole draft or FA at NT. We can cheat and improve our secondary, that’d help our pass rush and shrink our game plan a little because now we CAN focus on the run because we have elite players in the secondary that know their jobs. Yes our run game was suspect but it’s a passing league. We’ve been impotent in the secondary for so long I think people forgot that if we can make a team one dimensional running would be less effective. Only thing I have to add is that we actually did draft a DL so who knows how that will shake out maybe we got lucky and solidified our D at every level. It’s a reach but that’s what the comment section is for right?

  2. colorofmyskinz - May 10, 2016 at 7:07 AM

    So nice to see DJax at volunteer workouts!!

    • Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:48 PM

      Djax is BACK….I’m telling y’all he got his speed back he wasnt a 100 percent after the hamstring injury…when the last time you see a DB be able to run side by side with DJax after getting beat at the line of scrimmage ? Never and he struggle to create separation but after seeing him run and work on his technique hes gonna look very similar to the djax we seen when he first got to the redskins

    • mtskins - May 11, 2016 at 12:05 AM

      He has 500,000 reasons to show up for voluntary workouts this year. Still nice to have him there. He was a big help for Rashad Ross hoping he does the same for Doctson.

  3. ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© - May 10, 2016 at 8:49 AM

    I can never contain my enthusiasm before the season starts. ALL the wins! $100!

  4. sidepull - May 10, 2016 at 8:54 AM

    8-8 $25. $15 less than .500 ball, and $60 that they play as well, or better, than last season. Scot said a few years. I think one more draft , if Cuz does improve, the Redskins are on the rise. Joe Barrys D has got to show me something this season. Stop the run.

  5. smotion55 - May 10, 2016 at 9:35 AM

    7 to 10 wins . 75 % of the dollar, is the same as last year for me. The division is better this year and 9 wins is progress in my eyes. 7 wins would be a major step back unless major injuries wipe out 10 + important players. I don’t like using players injuries as a gauge for wins but it is obvious that if Cousins, Kerrigan and the starting corners go down they are in trouble. Last year Dallas lost Romo and look what happened. A major step forward would be 10+ wins and if I were betting on this I would wager on ten wins . Still 1 year away from top 8 teams.

  6. Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:24 PM

    Steelers O-line is not that good…I believe if junior gaullete is healthy he will be the difference maker of the defense…they D-line and secondary is not good either that’s why they have have to out score most of they opponents to win games…it should be a close game if our offense don’t struggle like it did at times last year

  7. mattphillipsdc - May 10, 2016 at 12:26 PM

    I agree 100% with your assessment and dollar allocation.

  8. Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:28 PM

    We gotta start off hot if we gonna make it back to the playoffs and the way our schedule is made…the last time redskins started the season off on a hot streak Jim Zorn was head coach won 6 straight games before the epic fall began…something very similar to what the falcons did last year

  9. Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:29 PM

    They should start off the season 4-0 or at least 3-1

  10. Mr.moneylover - May 10, 2016 at 12:35 PM

    12-4 if junior gallette is healthy …you add that with Preston smith and Ryan Kerrigan defense should be on point this year…but I’m still wondering whose lining up next to Chris baker…if its not Corey Crawford and Jarrell Powe the that D-line will be average because even tho Stephen paea can lift weights he struggle to get to the QB last year

  11. renhoekk2 - May 10, 2016 at 12:52 PM

    I am not overly concerned about the run defense. It’s modern day NFL football. Teams will throw more often than run even if they are having success running the ball. Teams are not going to go circa 1975 against the Redskins and pound the ball between the tackles for four quarters. With an improved pass rush with Galette and a seasoned P Smith, and an upgraded secondary, the defense will be better even if there is NO improvement in the run defense. One was ranked 25th and the other 26th. So if the 26th ranked pass defense jumps up to the mid teens in rankings and the run defense stays where it is, the overall defense will be better. The offense should be better if they get more games out of DJAX, and with Doctson’s contributions and better depth at TE. Again even if the run game on offense doesn’t improve, the overall offense should be better with the improved depth in the passing game. Of course the running game on both sides of the ball could also improve and things could be even better. I’m not sure why there is skepticism that Ioannidis could be an upgrade over Knighton. It’s very possible he is and that could go a long way to helping. If they drafted a DT in the second round and a safety in the 5th the narrative would probably be different for some reason. Not sure why. It would still be one rookie DT and one S. But the perception would be they addressed the run defense and that it will better.

    Without a devastating injury like LT or QB, I’ll go 9-10 wins.

    • bangkokben - May 10, 2016 at 8:52 PM

      I’m not concerned as much as others about the rush defense as well. Last year the ‘skins were pretty good in short-yardage and goalline and hopefully there isn’t a drop off there. The Redskins were 28th in total defense last year — and I agree with you that any modest improvement in pass defense will radically improve the statistical overall rank. The Redskins were 22nd in the league in giving up 20.6 first downs a game and most of these were through the air or long runs (often against nickle defense).

  12. wncskinsfan - May 10, 2016 at 9:49 PM

    It is all going to come down to the run. How well do the Skins run the ball? We shall see . . . . How well do we stop the run . . . again . . . we shall see. Tougher schedule, I wouldn’t be surprised if we repeated last season. Year two of a re-build. It will be a fun season to watch.

  13. Skulb - May 11, 2016 at 6:24 AM

    I might put $5 on 0-6 wins, just because it’s been so many years now of exactly that. One decent year followed by two years in the basement, going back to the late 90s. Skins fans have to do this as an act of self preservation. Unwarranted pessimism beats dashed optimism later on. Archives

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