Skip to content

Need to Know: The five most valuable Redskins of 2015

Mar 20, 2016, 5:46 AM EDT


Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, March 20, 39 days before the NFL Draft.

The five most valuable Redskins of 2015

The website uses a metric called approximate value or AV. The define it as “our attempt to put a single number on each player-season since 1950 so that we can (very approximately) compare across years and across positions.” If you want the nitty-gritty details you can look at their blog post about it.

Here are the five Redskins who had highest AV in 2015.

AV of 13—OT Trent Williams—This one is obvious. Pro Bowl selections don’t always mean much but the fact that Williams was the team’s lone Pro Bowl representative is fitting.

12—QB Kirk Cousins—The Redskins were 11th in passing yardage without a rushing game to speak of for most of the year. That means that when they moved the ball it was Cousins doing it.

9—OT Morgan Moses—When you see a number like this, you have to wonder if the metric is flawed or if perhaps we underappreciated the player. This could be a little bit of both. Moses did have a lot to do with the pass protection that helped Cousins have such a good year. Looking at how AV is calculated it looks like a tackle who started every game is going to get rewarded if the quarterback doesn’t get sacked a lot. Still, I’m not so sure that he was more valuable to the team than Jordan Reed was.

8OLB Ryan Kerrigan—Finally, a defensive player. That’s fitting, because for the most part the offense carried the team in 2015. It should be noted that just behind him with an AV of 7 were NT Terrance Knighton, OLB Trent Murphy, and DE Chris Baker.

8TE Jordan Reed—His value seems a little low since he was the key to the offense in the second half and the team leader in all of the major receiving categories. But note that the value is “approximate” so you don’t want to put too fine a line on it.

As noted, three defensive players, Baker, Murphy, and Knighton, came in just outside of the top five with AV’s of 7 as did G Brandon Scherff.

If you want to see the AV for the entire roster, go here to pull up the roster with the AV for each player. Click on the column header to sort.


—The Redskins last played a game 70 days ago. It will be about 175 days until they play another one.

Days until: Redskins offseason workouts start 20; 2016 NFL draft 39; Redskins training camp starts 130

In case you missed it

  1. troylok - Mar 20, 2016 at 8:37 AM

    I work with statistics and my feeling is football is a sport that makes it very, very hard to pin players down with numbers. It’s hard to account for scheme, weather conditions, player injuries, impact of coaching, etc. Too often we see a player thrive in one system only to fail in another. So, with little knowledge of the system used by player reference, I would say the numbers are flawed.

    For instance, Trent Williams is awesome, but when he was out for injury, Ty Nsekhe seemed to do a pretty good job keeping Cousins’s jersey clean in place of him. Does that make Nsekhe highly ranked? Should it lower Williams’ ranking because of it? I mean, if the QB stays clean regardless, maybe it has more to do with a QB who can get rid of the ball fast than it does the play of the offensive linemen.

    • Rich Tandler - Mar 20, 2016 at 9:45 AM

      You’re right about the numbers and I applaud the PFR guys for admitting right in the name of the metric is that it’s “approximate”. Looking at the roster with all the values (I’m about to add the link to the post) I don’t think that a player with an AV if 7 is necessarily better than one with a 6 but in almost every case he’s better than a player with an AV of 4. So there’s some validity to it.

      As far as Williams-Nsekhe, I don’t think you can look at one game. If Nsekhe had to replace Williams for a month, teams would get a book on him quickly and his weaknesses and inferior athleticism would be exposed.

    • rtcwon - Mar 20, 2016 at 2:51 PM

      Agree 100% ;) I’ll add officiating as another major variable. How do you account for bad calls against a player or gift calls for another?

      Way too many variables in the ultimate team sport of football. Unlike baseball, modern basketball and to a lesser extent hockey where analytics can pretty well approximate an individual’s value, way too much happens between the ears in football.

      I know Rich is a Larrys & Joes guy but I’m a Xs & Os guy so I’ll immediately notice the deviation between player’s value with this formula is way out of wack.

      All that said, Moses is under valued. He single handedly salvaged our first number 1 pick in years and saved Scot a ton of grief. Kerrigan is over valued, he depends on better players around him, when not getting fooled on bootlegs, he’s a top 5 #2 but nothing as a #1. Breeland just needs to be more consistent for his value to increase. And Reed is a victim of horrible PI & holding calls against him.

  2. hail74 - Mar 20, 2016 at 8:42 AM

    Replace Moses with breeland and slide the names around in any order you like. Moses was fine as a tackle but certainly had his flawed moments. The run game to the right was horrendously ineffective and he was slow coming out of his stance on more than just a few occasions. He’s young tho so he’ll improve but if I had to choose to keep one over the other it’d be Breeland.

  3. gholmesbm - Mar 20, 2016 at 8:48 AM

    Breeland stands out being omitted from this list.

    • Rich Tandler - Mar 20, 2016 at 9:40 AM

      Breeland had an AV of 6 so he was just outside of the group mentioned here. Would agree that he should be higher, perhaps just behind Kerrigan.

      • ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© - Mar 20, 2016 at 10:02 AM

        And Breeland is only 24. He has plenty of time to get even better.

  4. bangkokben - Mar 20, 2016 at 11:53 AM

    I think one of the factors of this metric is games played. Breeland and Reed likely “lose value” for not playing an entire 16 game season. Murphy on the other hand was available for every game increasing his value. The guys that “can away with” missing games are the guys with names – Trent Williams and Pot Roast. Just speculating.

  5. gurnblanstonreturns - Mar 20, 2016 at 11:56 AM

    Most glaring omission: Scot McCloughan.

    (I know, I know, it’s only players, but . . . just sayin’.)

  6. jtkopp - Mar 20, 2016 at 4:05 PM

    Dont forget Hall. An old man switching positions to help out is more valuable than most.Add his leadership,also not measured. Also we had the best punter who bailed us out more times I can remember! Cousins,way,breeland,hall,smith aremy top 5 I removed the o linemen because we couldnt run and kirk jas a quick release. Up front on d was tje same. I gave it ti Preston because je gave us a big boost in tje pass rush Archives

Follow Us On Twitter