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Need to Know: Who has the best chance of being the Redskins’ first-round pick?

Feb 10, 2016, 5:17 AM EDT


Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, February 10, 14 days before the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

Who has the best chance of being the Redskins’ first-round pick?

Yesterday I put up a post looking at some mock drafts from around the interwebs and who they have the Redskins taking in the first round. I though it would be fun this morning to follow up on that and get out the imaginary $100 in casino chips and place them on each player according to what I see their chances are of actually being the Redskins’ first-round pick.

I’m leaving out “the field” since at this early stage the Redskins’ top may may well not be on this list. It’s just the $100 placed on these five players.

Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson: $10—The Tigers officially list him at 5-10 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him measure at less than that at the combine. Although Alexander is a talented corner, I think that Scot McCloughan wants to acquire bigger players in the secondary, not smaller one.

Sheldon Rankins, DE, Louisville: $15—If he was three or four inches taller McCloughan would be all over this guy. But then again, if he was 6-4 or 6-5 instead of 6-1 he probably wouldn’t be on the board at pick No. 21. He remains an intriguing possibility.

Jaran Reed, DT, Alabama: $20—Although he is listed at 311 pounds, some a see Reed as a nose tackle. If he’s a possibility there his value could increase in McCloughan’s eyes.

Josh Doctson, WR, TCU: $25—Don’t forget that McCloughan would have taken WR Amari Cooper at No. 5 last year had the Raiders not scooped him up at No. 4. With the top two wide receivers turning 30 this year and both in the last year of their contracts, finding a top WR is a need that must be filled sooner rather than later. And at 6-3, Doctson is also the tall wide receiver that the team has been missing for a long time.

Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama: $30—I’m sure many of you are tired of me saying that I don’t think the Redskins view inside linebacker as an urgent need but one that they certainly improve in the draft. Ragland, who good speed and instincts, would have the potential to be a solid upgrade.


—The Redskins last played a game 31 days ago. It will be about 214 days until they play another one.

—About 169 days until centers and linebackers report to Richmond.

Days until: NFL Combine 14; NFL free agency starts 28; 2016 NFL draft 78

In case you missed it

  1. colorofmyskinz - Feb 10, 2016 at 6:36 AM

    Agreed with these values. First round you have to take a pass rusher, some megatron receiver, or top ranked CB. In our case I am thinking Reed or Docston most likely. I think he leaves the ILB on the table. Not sure if he would use a first rounder on ILB.

  2. babyteal1 - Feb 10, 2016 at 7:29 AM

    Inside Linebacker or DT/DE are absolutely the first need in the draft. If Ragland is there…take him!!!

  3. colorofmyskinz - Feb 10, 2016 at 8:21 AM

    There are 2 centers up for FA this year. Cardinals will probably let their top safety go. Might be a couple of good pick ups at those positions. We need so much might be good to take a top rated veteran center so we don’t have to use a top pick there and then we can use the top picks on defense. Takes much longer to get a drafted center up and running vs a drafted pass rusher or safety.

    We should drop garçon for sure and replace with high price center. Draft another WR. Take that BIG WR on the draft board, develop a Megatron.

    • thirdistheworrd - Feb 10, 2016 at 11:35 AM

      While this might not be a great draft class overall, it is probably the best center draft class we’ve seen in decades both in terms of talent and depth. There is no way Scot spends money on an FA center when a starter could be found anywhere from round 2-4. Dropping Garcon would be preposterous, he costs almost as much to drop as it does to keep him, and he was our healthiest and most reliable WR last season. I think drafting a WR would be a very good idea, but let him sit at no. 3 receiver for a year and let DJax or Pierre walk next year (when they are both free agents and won’t kill any cap money).

      Most importantly, for everyone above using this phrase: You cannot develop a Calvin Johnson. That’s like “developing” a LeBron James. Human beings with that combination of size and athleticism (6’5, 4.2 second 40 yard dash) come along once in a generation, if that. You can develop a very successful receiver from anywhere on the board– see Antonio Brown (5th round)– but don’t expect anyone with Megatron-like characteristics falling to no. 21– ever. A 6’3 guy like Josh Doctson is the best you can expect, and he still could be very good.

      Before anyone bashes Garcon anymore, remember that while he had some drop issues this year, he had a combined total of three drops in the three years previous (look it up). Not only is he an iron man as far as injuries are concerned, but he has some of the surest hands in the NFL and is essential to Kirk Cousins’ development.

      • bangkokben - Feb 10, 2016 at 12:17 PM

        i’m in agreement here. The idea that Garcon can simply be replaced is silly. I’m sure Justin Blackmon can attest too. Let’s get rid of a sure thing at receiver for an unknown. That’s simply ridiculous. You can draft a receiver AND let the contracts run their course. If the players don’t like playing on the last year, you can trade them.

        • jonevans511 - Feb 10, 2016 at 2:30 PM

          Totally agree bang. The folks willing to let Garcon walk are the same people who will SHRED Cousins if Pierre leaves and all of a sudden the offense lacks a safety valve. Sure Jordan Reed helps in this regard as well, but after the year he had you better believe opposing defenses will give him the Gronk treatment and he won’t always be open when we need yardage through the air. I love Crowder but he fills a specific need. Having a sure handed receiver who runs crisp routes and is never afraid to both take and lay a hit is a luxury we cannot afford to part ways with, but this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t add at least one more WR via the draft. If we can snag a tall, physical receiver with some speed to complement the corps we have now, not only will Kirk rest assured knowing he’ll have play makers all around him but we won’t need immediate production out of the rookie WR. I look at the Panthers who, despite losing Kelvin Benjamin last year, were able to weather the storm with far less talent at receiver than the skins. For the first several months of the season their rookie WR Devin Funchess wasn’t a factor and/or didn’t play at all. But as the season progressed and Cam gained more trust in him, he flashed his ability without being thrown in to a role he wasn’t yet ready for (being the go-to receiver). His numbers don’t jump off the page but he’ll be a nice piece to throw in alongside a rehabbed Benjamin and the rest of their receiving corps.

          The Skins have the ability to both draft more WR help and not need to rely on them heavily next year. Not sure we could be in a better position with respect to WR as long as we hold on to Garcon.

      • ET - Feb 10, 2016 at 2:18 PM

        Garçon is a leader and a gamer and a tough motherscratcher. He’s exactly the kind of FA talent Scot says he values. I’d be very surprised not to see him on the roster next season, regardless of WR draft picks.

        Roberts, on the other hand? Pffffft.

  4. weneedlinemen42 - Feb 10, 2016 at 8:25 AM

    Pass rusher or DB seem to be the most urgent needs.

    After that ILB, big receiver, and center.

    Ignoring the actual draft class, our draft pick is in tricky territory. The best pass rushers and DBs will be off the board.

    Early 20’s will be the range when the best ILBs, safeties, tight-ends and interior linemen will start coming off the board. Only the truly elite prospects will go earlier because of the way those position’s are perceived.

    I’d be tempted to look at those positions before picking from the second tier of the “premium” positions. The Patriots demonstrated the value of a twin TE attack. I’d rather pick up another really good tight end, than a big wide receiver, who falls further down the position rankings.

    • hail74 - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:08 AM

      Don’t forget about Niles Paul, he would work well in a 2TE set. I think our most urgent need is running the ball and stopping the run. Therefore I say build up the front 7. A strong front seven can also make an avg secondary look pretty good, but a strong back four won’t necessarily improve your run D.

      • scottmccloughanfan - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:32 AM

        Football is blocking and tackling.

        Like your style my man.

  5. troylok - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:19 AM

    A lot could change between now and the draft that could shift this around. Doctson’s stock will go up and he will be long gone by the time Washington picks. I like the Ragland pick. He’s solid. We don’t know how much the lack of athletic inside linebackers limited Barry’s game plans last year but I am sure that, along with the injuries in the secondary, kept him from blitzing as much as he wanted to. In this defense, the inside linebackers have to read and react quickly. I like Foster and Compton, but they are brown baggers who will give solid but not fantastic performances. McGloughin is looking for spectacular performances.

    • ET - Feb 10, 2016 at 3:15 PM

      “A lot could change between now and the draft that could shift this around. “

      Based on previous years of pre-draft speculation, a lot will change between now and the draft. That’s part of the fun :)

  6. scottmccloughanfan - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:30 AM

    On offense, I think center NICK MARTIN will be there in the second round.

    WILLIAMS is a year older, and both LAUVAO and LICHTENSTEIGER return from injuries, not good things.

    LONG, and MOSES will have a third season, SCHERFF and KOUANDJIO a second. A rookie center would fit.

    I would also take a late pick at OG/C, then an undrafted OT for the practice squad, assuming TAKOBY COFIELD can be promoted to the active roster with some regularity.

    COMPTON should become a blocking TE and emergency OT. LeRIBEUS should be supplanted by a rookie upgrade.

    Additionally, the offense needs a stud WR, RB, a better TE than PAUL or COMPTON, and a backup QB in training.

    That’s three top 100 players right there. This year we can add three.

    On defense, I would become serious about rebuilding the d-line.

    We need potentially another NT, one, possibly two DE’s if HATCHER retires, maybe an ILB, a CB assuming JARRETT can become one exclusively, otherwise two, a SS if JARRETT becomes an exclusive CB, and an upgrade at FS.

    That’s like ………. wow, five to seven upgrades on defense.

    So eight to 10 upgrades amongst back-ups/starters are needed on both sides of the ball.

    One draft can deliver eight players in 2016. The chances of McCLOUGHAN hitting home runs on all eight……almost zero. But if anyone can deliver, I feel he can.

    I think we need three more FA periods/drafts at least beyond this season to be able to compete for division championships on a regular basis.

    By then I’ll be considered old.

    Come on SCOTT, the elderly turn their lonely eyes to you.

  7. abanig - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:37 AM

    I think Sheldon Rankins or Jarran Reed.

    I don’t think Alexander &Ragland will be there IMO.

    I like Coleman, Doctoson & Thomas but I just look at this defense and think the only way the skins are going to start winning in the playoffs is if their D can make more plays. The D needs another playmaker

    • ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© - Feb 10, 2016 at 10:06 AM

      I think Ragland will be gone, too.

      Baylor’s Andrew Billings, 6’2″ and 310. Not as big as some NTs, but substantially quicker, great motor, and strong as hail.

      That quickness and motor are worth giving up a few pounds and a little height. Blocking him is like blocking a bowling ball.

      • abanig - Feb 18, 2016 at 9:44 AM

        Yeah, he’d be a good pick and he can always add some weight. He’d fit great with our 1 gap scheme

  8. scottmccloughanfan - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:42 AM

    $30 on ILB tells me, you feel the GM can go anywhere on defense outside OLB, and score with the best player available at #21. Since ILB might be less picked over than D-Line, CB, or S you think the best available at a position of need = ILB.

    Well I can’t argue with that approach, and if that’s where the die lands so be it.

    It’s certainly not my first choice, but seems at this point to be the most logical.

  9. scottmccloughanfan - Feb 10, 2016 at 11:17 AM

    RAGLAND ranked # 16 overall player value. If he falls to #21 sounds like as good an investment as any.

    • redskinsnameisheretostay - Feb 10, 2016 at 11:47 AM

      That ranking looks surprisingly close to where C J Mosley was selected last season. The draft combines have yet to be done and these rankings are historically inaccurate once you move out of the top 6 picks. It’s nothing against Ragland since he is a hard nose brutal tackler. However, he has to show he can play in coverage and that he fight off NFL caliber lineman. Many teams that play a 4-3 may want to take him early. He could be awesome at the Will spot in a 3-4. There are too many questions yet to be answered He certainly resembles a player Scot would draft.

  10. James McFullan - Feb 10, 2016 at 11:51 AM

    With 21st pick the Redskins should go for a 3-4 DE or an ILB. If the Redskins want a true NT they can go after the Jets NT Damon Harrison, he said he wants to make about 5 million a year and that is only 1 million more than Pot Roast. They could also go after Ian Williams from the 49ers. To fix the running they could go after Lamar Miller who is a very dynamic back. Then draft Nick Martin, who would be a big bodied center at over 300 pounds and knows how to play center well, unlike LeReibus.

    • redskinsnameisheretostay - Feb 10, 2016 at 12:15 PM

      That’s a fair assessment. I normally don’t like to see the team use a 1st pick on an inside linebackers unless he was proven to be dominant force in college. However, I think as along as Galette returns and takes the OLB and Preston is lined up with him at DE then it could leave them open to taking an ILB. There looks to be a lot of D-line talent so it’d be hard to imagine a better offer at the 21st spot. Maybe Ezekiel Elliott could make it hard for the to pass on but I expect him to go in the top 15. I’m all in for going after the best lineman on defense at 21.

  11. smotion55 - Feb 10, 2016 at 12:46 PM

    There are 5 or 6 Nose Tackles that are going early . I would take Rankins because he kicked but at the senior bowl, he can rush from end also.I liked Butler and his motor at the senior bowl also. Reed,Johnson, Billings, Clark, Butler should be there when we pick, and Robinson will be gone. If we don’t go nose or d-end then we need to trade back, and get a couple of picks.

  12. renhoekk2 - Feb 10, 2016 at 12:57 PM

    I would rather they sign some of the younger FA WR looking for their second contract. Jones, Randle, Benjamin are FA WR and shouldn’t cost the $10M/yr Garcon and Jackson do. Let some other team break them in and teach them how to play in the NFL. If they draft a rookie and they have Garcon and Jackson on the team how much playing time is he going to get? Rookie lineman and LB, RB can contribute right away. Case in point Scherff and Smith, Jones last season. There is no “lost year” while they learned the NFL game like WR often do. They need to get younger at WR I just don’t like doing it in the first round of the draft. Unless the player is special like Cooper was last year, but we are talking top 5 in the draft and the Skins are not picking there.

    • bangkokben - Feb 10, 2016 at 1:29 PM

      If the #1 pick is a wide receiver and he takes the bulk of Andre Roberts’ (260), Rashad Ross’ (117), and Ryan Grant’s (456) offensive snaps including those needed for the inevitable bruised knee or calf strain for #11 (or maybe this year he wear’s #10) AND this #1 pick becomes a legit replacement for either of the 30-year-olds by year two, I’m fine with it.

  13. kenlinkins - Feb 10, 2016 at 1:24 PM

    Let me add another name to the list. Cody Whitehair, OG Kansas State, 6″4′ 300. This kid could play OG, C and back up at RT or even LT if the house is on fire. He is the kind of player the GM likes, Four year starter, Captain, Tuff as nails and a hard worker with a clean nose. I have a late first round draft talent on him. Just because RG3 will be gone doesn’t mean the Redskins do not still require investment at O-Line (Protecting the new multi million dollar QB seems like a good idea). Having two young first round picks at OG to go along will T. Williams, Moses and who ever plays Center in 2016 sounds good to me.

    • ET - Feb 10, 2016 at 2:36 PM

      I like the sound of this feller, and he’s currently projected to go toward the back of the 1st round. But will the Skins really draft someone projected as an NFL guard with their 1st pick two years in a row? There are lots of needs to address.

    • James McFullan - Feb 10, 2016 at 3:04 PM

      As much as I would like for Kirk Cousins to be protected by 3 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick (assuming the Redskins draft Nick Martin there), and a 3rd round pick. But the Redskins have bigger needs than a guard, like NT, DE, ILB, Safety, Center, CB, and RB. So my solution is sign Lamar Miller, Tashaun Gipson, Damon Harrison, then draft either Robert Nkemdiche or Jaylon Smith (assuming either is available) in the first round and Draft Nick Martin in the second. That would leave ILB or DE (depending on who Scot McCloughan drafts),along with CB, and SS still needing to be fixed, but that can be fixed over the next season or two

  14. robert herrera - Feb 10, 2016 at 3:47 PM

    It’s obvious reggie ragland will not be there for the Redskins to pick but a solid cornerback or a defensive lineman would be perfect.the Redskins need to start kin
    building the defensive front. If knighton wants to leave then let him go. Kenny Clarke from ucla or jarren would be better.

    • redskinsnameisheretostay - Feb 10, 2016 at 6:00 PM

      Nothing is ever obvious in the draft once the pick moves beyond the first 6 and even more so when past the 10th. What has you buying 100% that Ragland won’t be available by the 21st? If Ragland was getting top 6 honors on draft projections then I’d understand. However, most so called pundits have him as a latter half first round pick. There also hasn’t been any combine and the draft is months away. All you have are guessing games for the most part. Especially this draft that comes with so little elite level talent coming out of college.

      CJ Mosley wasn’t selected until something like the 17th pick and some scouts say he is slight improvement from Ragland.

  15. murphsman - Feb 10, 2016 at 7:32 PM

    Why did you said some see Reed as an NT although he is 311? Is that small or big for an NT?

    • James McFullan - Feb 10, 2016 at 9:05 PM

      It is very small, most NT’s are about 350+ pounds. They think he can play the position because of his speed, quickness, strength, and athleticism.

      • murphsman - Feb 11, 2016 at 3:10 AM

        Thank you

  16. Mr.moneylover - Feb 11, 2016 at 10:16 AM

    Jaran reed is the most likely pick at 21 if he’s available the second most likely pick at 21 Sheldon Rankins…if they don’t address WRs in free agency then WR Josh doctson will be the redskins first pick…they all good but after free agency we will know what side redskins will address in the draft

  17. jfive - Feb 12, 2016 at 7:22 AM

    Aldon should be a redskin Garson should be long gone along with roberts,there was a guy six ft six last year and he was not given a chance I knew then that was a big mistake somehow you guys make big money, but guys in the street could make better decision like give kirk big money;I can’t begin to support that and you really think grudden is a winner;Goodlucck! Archives

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