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Need to Know: Predicting how the Redskins will finish the season

Dec 11, 2015, 5:03 AM EDT

Redskins-huddle-vs.-Eagles

Here is what you need to know on this Friday, December 11, two days before the Washington Redskins play the Bears in Chicago.

How will the Redskins finish the season?

With the Redskins headed into the last quarter of the season, it’s time to break out the $100 in imaginary casino chips and bet them on what their record will be when the dust settles after the game at AT&T Stadium on January 3.

5-6 wins—$30: It’s hard for me to see them going winless the rest of the way. I think that just one more win is a possibility given their road woes and the fact that three ofthe remaining four are on the road.

7 wins—$50: This seems to be the sweet spot. Under this scenario, they go into Chicago and beat the Bears (1-8 at home) but lose to the Bills, who are a pretty good team, at FedEx Field. Then they split their last two on the road, probably losing in Philly and then beating the Cowboys, a team they never should have lost to last Monday.

8-9 wins—$20: This would be drawing to an inside straight, forcing them to win multiple road games and put a winning streak together and they have done neither this year. The thing is, winning each game individually seems possible so that’s why I’m putting a twenty down on this. But too much has to go right for them to run the table or go 3-1. Maybe if they can get the running game going they could put up a good finish.

Let’s pull out another C-note and put it down on their chances of these win totals getting them into the playoffs:

Playoffs with 5-6 wins—$0: There’s just no way that both the Eagles and the Giants win just one more game. Even if that happens I don’t think the tiebreakers would come out in the Redskins’ favor.

Playoffs with 7 wins—$35: If the two wins are against the Eagles and Cowboys, a 4-2 division record and a sweep over the Eagles would have them in pretty good shape.

Playoffs with 8-9 wins—$65: They are automatically in with nine wins of course and they have a pretty good shot with eight if two of the wins are division games. The Giants would have to win out in order to finish ahead of them.

Timeline

Today’s schedule: Practice 11:55; Jay Gruden and Sean McVay news conferences and player availability after practice, approx. 1:00

Days until: Redskins @ Bears 2; Bills @ Redskins 8; Redskins @ Eagles 15

In case you missed it

  1. John - Dec 11, 2015 at 5:57 AM

    The last half of this article makes no sense. The chances of the skins making the playoffs by finishing in each category doesn’t have to add up to 100% and likely should be much higher. 8-9 wins should be much higher than 65% because as you noted they are 100% in with 9 wins and very likely in with 8. Chances of getting in with 7 wins is opinion so I can’t argue with your low % but I do strongly disagree. Finally, I don’t see how you can say 0%. It’s obviously low but there’s s chance. Look at the scheduled. Let’s say the skins beat phi and lose the rest. They’re at 6-10 with a 3-3 division mark. If the Giants beat Miami then lose to Carolina, Minnesota and philly they’re 6-10, 2-4. We already have Philly bearing ny and losing to the skins. They also lose to buffalo and Arizona. That leaves them 6-10 and swept by the skins. Finally Dallas would beat the skins but lose to nyj, buffalo, Gb. There’s no way that scenario is 0%. And those schedules make 7 wins a likely division winner, in my opinion.

    • Rich Tandler - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:18 AM

      My game, my rules. It’s no supposed to reflect actual odds; I’m not smart enough to figure those out. It’s my gut feeling on each scenario, nothing more, nothing less.

      It’s supposed to be fun. Lighten up.

      • John - Dec 11, 2015 at 2:56 PM

        Yes it is your game and your rules. But it doesn’t work with independent events. Just trying to help you sound smarter. You’re certainly welcome to ignore my advice or you listen and do a better job with your game next time. That’s up to you.

    • ET - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:18 PM

      Rich will also only bet in increments of five or 10. Try to get him to bet a buck on something!

  2. colmac69 - Dec 11, 2015 at 7:14 AM

    Arizona winning last nite was gd result as keeps pressure on carolina to win plus they got eagles nxt wk so they b well focused

    Washington just have to worry bout themselves and let it play out….

    Win vs Chicago b great but a loss won’t b end of world…..

    • Mr.moneylover - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:28 AM

      You ment they play the Giants next week…the eagles game will be the redskins ticket to the playoffs because they will own both tie breakers they already own the giants if we have a tie record with them at the end of the season if we beat the eagles again then the only way giants and eagles go to the playoffs is if we let them by not winning games

      • colmac69 - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:50 AM

        I knew arizona played eagles…I maybe could phrased it better.. “plus They got eagles” was referencing arizona (lost in translation I think) lol

        Agree bout eagles game…I mentioned that on post yesterday in that’s biggest game remaining on schedule if things play out as xpected

      • sidepull - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:54 AM

        On the money again.

  3. ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© - Dec 11, 2015 at 8:15 AM

    Looks like Chris Thompson will be out. He’s been a good 3rd down back for us this year.

    Will Matt Jones take this role?
    ~

    • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 8:35 AM

      matt jones takes everyones role dont be suprised if he lines up at TE in some sets too! Lol ,Gruden loves this guy unconditionally

      • bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:23 AM

        Your best post ever. Got me laughing.

  4. gobrewcrewnow - Dec 11, 2015 at 8:46 AM

    Ok I could see the skins loosing out I could see them winning 1 game. They are terrible on the road. But they do win one loose one a lot. Kirk cousins I’m sorry he sucks. He ain’t a franchise qb. He is a glorified backup qb. Which means a really really good back up. Jay cutler will be playing with his heart on his shoulder the bears d ain’t terrible. It might be a back and fourth game but I’ll put my money on Jay cutler over kirk Cousins anyday. The buffalo Bills there so hit or miss but it is a team with Mccoy he knows the redskins and knows how to beat the redskins. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Mccoy just destroyed the redskins d. The Eagles saw the dallas Cowboys do something to the skins that shocked the world. They blitzed and they blitzed a lot from every angle. Line backer blitz. 3 man blitzes full houses. The Eagles have a very good DLINE they could end up killing kirk so the skins OLINE needs to step up. The the Cowboys again. Look the Cowboys have Matt Cassel but they have a healthy Dez Bryant. One cassel started throwing to Dez the offense started to move. Skins can’t put Dunbar on Dez if they do its game over. Especially if it means the Cowboys win there in. Dez will be destroying dunbar. The cowboys saw the blitzes working they saw how effective it was vs the skins OLINE and how effective it was vs kirk. So the redskins have it cut out for themselves. Tough final game stretch. I’d say winning one game may be the only win they get in the next 4 games there best chance is vs the bears

    • Mr.moneylover - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:40 AM

      I agree…they gonna find ways to beat they self like they did Monday night…I said the same thing about kirk cousins they ttying to make fried chicken with out no flower ITS impossible HE IS WHO HE IS…I think the offense is to difficult for him to run as well so its not just rg3

    • colmac69 - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:59 AM

      If that’s case then redskins b as well folding the tent and just giving four games away

      First of eagles d-line didn’t kill kirk last time they played

      Think cousins has done enough to b starter in this league….will he b franchise qb prob not but a more than capable starter then why not….

      McCoy had gd games vs skins before but he also had few quiet games as well vs skins

      Bryant caught 3 passes Monday night with long one having blackmon covering…..don’t know bout other two but it’s not xactly destroying Dunbar is it….and why would Dunbar go on Bryant anyway when u got breeland/blackmore?

  5. Mr.moneylover - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:17 AM

    I think redskins will win one more game…the offense has taken steps back the last two weeks and to hear jay gruden say they don’t know what kinda offense they wanna be is capital B.A.D bad…I got them finishing 6-10 missing the playoffs…jay gruden haven’t gave ppl confidence since the moment he decided to keep the same players that finish 3-13

    • bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:48 AM

      Same players? There are too many new players to list and next year there will be another bunch of new guys but the same head coach.

  6. Skulb - Dec 11, 2015 at 9:52 AM

    It would help if the players on this team would believe in themselves, particularly on offense. They are on the edge of the cliff of becoming comfortable with losing again now I feel like. I was able to excuse the losses to the Panthers and Patriots, because those are very good teams and the games were on the road. I was also able to excuse the Atlanta game because the Falcons were hot and it was a road game. I was even able to cook up some excuses for the New York games. But I just ran out of rationalizations on Monday. Dallas are awful. Simply awful. They came here with just a defense and walked away with a win because half our offense had mysteriously forgotten how to play football. It was embarrassing.
    I’d put it differently myself: if they are going to play the way they played on Monday they will win 0-1 games down the stretch. Reed, Cousins and the running backs were nowhere near good enough against Dallas to win anything. If on the other hand they play like they did against the Rams or Giants they will win 2-4 more games. Since the former happened most recently I am already steeling myself for losing out here. Someone has to light a fire under the collective ass of this offense, and I’m not sure I see anyone stepping up. I know Trent tries but he seems very alone. Kirk needs to wake up, lead the team and ball out here. This is his chance.

    • sidepull - Dec 11, 2015 at 10:10 AM

      I think Kirk might have had a chance Monday night but it got fumbled away. Never know. I do know the D gave them the ball and also decent field position which they squandered again and again. They need a leader. If the D knocks the snot out of Cutller that ball will be up for grabs.

      I put my money of 6-10. I think they will get a game on the road finally and get that monkey off their back but that will be it. I just dont have the confidence that this team is ready to compete at a level where they are fighting for their playoff lives. I hoped I would have seen what that looked like last week. No, I fear too little too late. Next year.

      • Skulb - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:09 PM

        No. They have the potential to win out. They are facing four bad teams here. The only way that doesn’t happen is if they lie down like they did to Dallas. The way this team is going though the offense will explode on the Bears while the defense collapses. Never two weeks in a row of good or bad performances from anyone is the Redskins way apparently.

        • JOHNNY B - Dec 12, 2015 at 6:46 AM

          The entire offense was unprepared for the Dallas game. Is that the player’s or the coaches. We got beat up by their defense because we were unprepared that was the play calling and the preparation before the game. With 80 percent of the o-line being new they needed more from the coaches. This has happened every time we have played a good defense. Every time we play a team with bad defense we win. So I can see us beating the Bears , Buffalo, and the Eagles.

        • Skulb - Dec 12, 2015 at 12:19 PM

          Maybe, and it’s certainly the case that the Skins can’t get past good defenses right now. But the thing with the Dallas game was that it wasn’t that they were good but that we were bad. At least it looked that way to me.
          Cousins seemed rattled, the interior line got overrun, the receivers made penalties to kill drives in the first half, like they did against Miami and mistakes, predictable play calling and weird schemes did the rest.

          It’s like there really are two completely different teams right now. Barry seems to finally have the defense playing consistently well while the offense is disintegrating. The fact that we won against New York camouflaged the fact that the offense was incredibly wasteful in that game, which should never have been as close as it was. There is potential there and you see it against bad defenses when they find their rhythm. But it comes out in sputters in a highly irregular fashion.

          Maybe we just have to wait another year for everything to come together.

        • JOHNNY B - Dec 12, 2015 at 12:42 PM

          True I see that we will be better next year with the o-line. We do need to draft a good center or pick up a good one in free agency. We also need an all around tight end to complement Reed and Paul. Too many pieces needed to complete the offense puzzle next year but overall we will get better.

    • colmac69 - Dec 11, 2015 at 11:54 AM

      That’s most negative post I have read from u Skulb

      U bn drinking same stuff as money,,,greed,,,,hk,,,,,stephan by any chance lol!!!!!

      • Skulb - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:26 PM

        No but the Dallas loss was much worse than all the others this year. This was a 2013 type loss and there are no excuses. Cousins didn’t see open receivers and missed many throws when he did see people, Reed had his worst game as a Skin and the entire offense produced still more drive killing penalties. It never ends. And as usual the run game was nonexistent, the play calling was timid and stupid and the game plan was weird. If this is how they are going to play I might as well just tune out and read box scores until there’s real improvement.

      • bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:30 PM

        Knee jerk reaction to one game. The coach played not to lose and when you do that you leave yourself little margin for error. I can understand that kind of approach against a superior team but against a team that just has one thing going for them – their defense – at your own building; you deserve the criticism. Hopefully, he’ll learn from it. I don’t know – and that is the troubling thing. Mind you, I think everyone deserves criticism when warranted but that rarely jumps the canyon that most here then do. I’m not advocating chopping heads.

  7. bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 10:01 AM

    As for odds. Football Outsiders have the Redskins now at 31% as to winning the division. It has a three way tie with Philly, NY, and Washington at 7-9 with Philly having the best odds at winning the division at 42.7%. NY has a 20.8% chance.

    If you use ESPN’s NFL playoff machine and factor in their power rankings for last four games, the Redskins win the division by two games at 8-8 while the Giants and Eagles go 6-10. Of course that has the Redskins beating the Eagles in Philly week 16 and if they don’t, the Redskins would lose the division in a tiebreaker to whomever wins the Giants/Eagles game in week 17. So bottom line, the remaining games are important but the season hinges on the week 16 match up with the Eagles for both teams. Win that game and you’re 98% likely hosting a wild card game – and most likely to the Seattle Seahawks.

  8. hail74 - Dec 11, 2015 at 10:24 AM

    5-7 sucks, more so because the rest of the division sucks too. However everyone had them close to that and maybe 8-8 if the stars aligned properly at beginning of season. Cousins has proven to be the best QB on the roster this season. Maybe they get a guy in the mid rounds next year to eventually supplant him. The team has already come out in support for the coach. I’ll be upset if we blow this chance at the playoffs but not as upset as the fans here in Cleveland are about their team. My glass half full comment of the day.

    • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:11 PM

      i feel you about record predictions before the season bv thats it theyre just predictions ! If u look at the actual games and losses i cant think of one game where i thought wow that team is just more talented from top to bottom its usually why are we beating ourselves why is gruden calling this or not doing that same for barry , why are we coming out flat in 3rd quater why is player x on the bench why is player x not on the bench this team /staff never seam to be on the same page in theese losses should we be 12-0 heck no but 5-7 is not acceptable and lucky were in a struggling div. Where is our win saying hey were a team on the rise ? Dont have one weve won all our games at home 3 against bad teams we struggled to win a close game 1 giants who just made more mistakes than us and they were still in positiom to win 1 saints who has a historically bad D and that game was close early seems to me this team is unprepared outcoached week to week not out talented , bye bye gruden i say

    • ET - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:34 PM

      I’ll feel pretty content with 7-9 or 8-8, regardless of any playoff scenario. Sure, it’ll be nice if the Skins make the playoffs, but they’re too inconsistent to expect much. Let’s face it, mediocre or slightly below average is a heckuva lot better than the raging dumpster fires of 2013 and 2014. There are Glimmers of Hope. I’m ok with that!

  9. greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 10:36 AM

    this is what i know about the skins we beaten one bad team in a going away fashion -saints- and even that game was close early . Being bad on the road is not just a this yr thing but a gruden 2yr thing , we are facing a bear team who has been improving as yr going on yeah they lost last wk but thats what mediocre teams do when they think theyre playing another bad team at home sleepwalk, see skins/bucs game , they have 1 win at home so 1 they will fight hard to get last home win 2 wont take another mediocre team lightly back to back weeks at home not to mention J.FOX is a far better coach than Gruden / the teams remaining on schedule are all fighting for playoff berths if we dont get the bills at home i dont see us winning in philly a team we barely beat without 3 best db and olinemen and dallas on the road both those teams/fans will be skyhigh jacked to beat us with there playoffs on the line/ i cant remember 1 game gruden has gottem our team jackedup to play and match anothe team intensity , bye bye gruden!

    • colmac69 - Dec 11, 2015 at 11:50 AM

      Typical post from the redskin fan (allegedly) who wants team to lose so it might hasten gruden exit stage left…….

      Would b willing to bet we will have more at stake when we play dallas than them

      Anything can happen when u got four bad teams playing…..

      • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:55 PM

        wrong sir i never root for my team to loose , but when i see the reason they are loosing im going to point it out, and the way this div is eveyone will have a shot we all play buff , gb is not an elite team heck they were an hail mary from being swept by lions and if carolina does looses a game this yr it will be just our luck it to the gmen , regardless if dallas out of contention last week , your really think they wouldnt want to stick it to us at home ruin our season too jerry prolly hand out bonuses for a win against us dallas doesnt fear or respect us they showed that mon. Night ,my point is gruden acts like where getting better each wk when in fact for the most part were the same is run game better? What bout defense maybe a little in secondary run d still suspect , special teams past two weeks block kicks missed fg short kickoffs big returns and coaching i give Barry credit for some adjustments in schemes and how he uses players, gruden doing same things all yr, im a true fan not a fanatic

    • bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 11:50 AM

      Good point about the Redskin’s opponents all fighting for their playoff lives. On the other hand, none of them were even playoff teams a year ago – except Dallas who will likely be eliminated from playoff contention come week 17 – and currently none of them have a winning record. I’m sure there are plenty of Bear fans saying exactly what you said but reversed – the Bears can’t win at home, the Redskins are fighting for their playoff lives, the Bears beat this team but they had a whole bunch of guys injured when they did, and when has John Fox got these guys motivated. Blah. Blah. Blah. As for Philly, Jay Gruden is 2-1 against Philly. All of the games close. So that is hardly a clear cut loss. Philly has looked God Awful but blocked a punt for TD, returned an interception 100 yards for TD, and returned a punt for a TD. Now suddenly their legit? C’mon. No NFC East team is legit which is why the Redskins have a good chance to win this division.

      • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:08 PM

        good poimt about bears maybe im giving fox to much credit, im jusp saying were not good enough to chalk up any win especially on the road , the eagles are a dangerous team yeah when theyre bad theyre bad but when theyre goo theyre good they did what we couldnt do against the pats come out ready to play so u got to give them credit and once again we on the road i remember last yr we beat them at fedex when they had everything to play for think chip wont make his team aware of that

        • bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 3:27 PM

          Chip might not have the team’s attention at that point. It will depend on how they fare against the Bills and Cardinals. If they split those games then maybe Chip can get them focused. They’ll be underdogs in both games and Chip is on the record as someone who looks at his players as grown men that don’t need him yelling at them for motivation.

    • ajbus1 - Dec 11, 2015 at 11:53 AM

      Gimme a Break Nell Carter.

  10. bangkokben - Dec 11, 2015 at 12:35 PM

    So they sign Pierre Thomas and IR Paea instead of Thompson. Interesting.

    • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:34 PM

      wow this is why i have a distain for gruden, wonder if thomas can play T.E.

      • hail74 - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:51 PM

        Why for Gruden? I’m pretty sure Scot makes all the signings

        • greed - Dec 12, 2015 at 11:50 AM

          scott not just signing players at this point of season without grudens input, JAY tells scott what he wants then scott tells jay who and what his options are

    • ET - Dec 11, 2015 at 2:50 PM

      Thomas has been sitting at home most of the season. It arguably would have been nice to have him around earlier, but happy he’s onboard now. Hope he’ll get some snaps on Sunday.

  11. goback2rfk - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:07 PM

    Pierre Thomas. Hell yeah he can be a petty decent 3rd down back for sure. The man can catch the ball out of the back field that is for sure. I would like to see him gets some reps as early as this Sunday if possible.

  12. abanig - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:30 PM

    I have them winning 2, losing 2. Finishing the season 7-9, like I thought before the season. I think that’s enough to win the division but not 100% sure. It’s hard to imagine any of this div teams finishing the season 3-1.

    • greed - Dec 11, 2015 at 1:42 PM

      im hoping for that scenario ! That the greatest mystery is this team gd enough mentally gd enough to excute to win

  13. bullets2586 - Dec 11, 2015 at 2:54 PM

    I predict the entire team will end the season on IR.

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