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Need to Know: What’s the best case win total for the 2015 Redskins?

Apr 26, 2015, 6:40 AM EDT


Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, April 26, four days before the Washington Redskins go on the clock at the NFL draft.

Question of the day

A few days a week I’ll give an in-depth answer to a question submitted by a fan on my Twitter feed, via the Real Redskins Facebook page, or in the comments section here. On Twitter address the questions to me at @Rich_TandlerCSN with the #NTK hashtag. There will be a comment thread set up on the Facebook page and if you’re asking your question here, put “for NTK” at the start of the comment.

Here are some quick-hit replies to some very good questions that don’t quite warrant a full post to answer:

I assume you’re talking about trading down in the first round, down from their No. 5 spot. Right now my gut feeling is that there is about a 65 percent chance that they stay put and 35 percent chance that they will make a deal. If they do trade, there are the obvious trade partners we’ve been hearing about, the Browns and Saints. But the obvious isn’t always what happens in the NFL draft. Maybe the Dolphins, picking 14th, will want to make a move up for a receiver or the Falcons might be willing to pay a premium to jump up from No. 8 to grab the edge rusher of their choice.

The Alabama wide receiver could be the safest, most NFL-ready pick in the entire draft, and that is rarely said about a receiver. His availability at pick No. 5 is very much in doubt. It would not be shocking to see the Raiders take him with the fourth pick to get a reliable target for Derek Carr. But if he is there and both Leonard Williams and Dante Fowler Jr., the top two defensive prospects, are off the board I think the Redskins will strongly consider Cooper.


The chances seem good that White, the other top wide receiver in the draft, will be available at No. 5, particularly if Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota go 1-2. If that happens I think that Scot McCloughan will work the phones like a madman for 15 minutes trying to unload the pick. If they can’t deal the pick, I don’t think they will take White. I might think differently but Scott McCloughan seems likely to take Fowler or Vic Beasley over the promising but unpolished White.

I posted my way-too-early season prediction yesterday on CSN. Spoiler alert—I said that they will be 6-10. I figured they would go 3-4 during their relative easy stretch before the bye (as easy as games can be for a team that has won seven games in the last two years can be, anyway). It’s certainly possible for them to steal another win during that segment of the schedule and go into the break at 4-3. It’s more of a stretch to see them getting four wins after the bye but in the best case, which is what the question was about, they could beat the Saints, Giants, and Bills at home and Carolina on the road. That would add up to 8-8, best-case scenario. If the Redskins suffer from injuries and the quarterback carousel continues you can’t another 4-12 campaign, perhaps even worse.


—It’s been 119 days since the Redskins played a game. It will be 140 days until they play another one.

Days until: 2015 NFL Draft 4; Redskins minicamp starts 51; Redskins training camp starts 95

If you have any questions about what’s going on at Redskins Park, hit me up in the comments. And I’m always on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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In case you missed it

  1. troylok - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:21 AM

    Rich, if the Redskins go 4-12, do you think Gruden will lose his job? I mean, his job is to continue to improve, right?

    • Rich Tandler - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:37 AM

      It would depend. If the Redskins have some key injuries but are still in most games and Gruden seems to be in control he could survive. That’s kind of drawing to an inside straight, however. I’d say it’s 75% that he would be replaced if they are 4-12 or worse.

  2. kenlinkins - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:27 AM

    I agree that 8-8 is the best case and 2-14 is about the floor for the Redskins this year, but I am not buying all this WR Cooper hype (way to much white on his spider chart), also not buying the Scherff can not play ROT in the NFL noise (this kid can play and could be the best pick long term), Also not buying the Fowler – Beasley hype of best OLB – Pass rushers as both have big holes in their games, IMO Gregory & Dupree are the best pass rushers and all around Egde players. DE Williams is the best player in the draft but Shelton & Goldmen are not far behind him if you want to rebuild your D-Line (Assumes a trade back). So, for my money, Williams if he falls to us and Scherff if we can not trade back, if we can trade back then Shelton and Dupree come into play (and we get CB Collins or Williams or anyone of the OT’s / OG’s still on the board with the extra 2nd round pick). While a Scherff or Sheldon with the first pick would not be sexy, it would be pretty safe as the building blocks required to get the Redskins into the play-off in 2016. (assumes the Redskins can get the QB position working which is still number one on the Redskins Do To List, but IMO that must be addressed in train camp / preseason games with what is now on the roster).

    • Rich Tandler - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:31 AM

      Beasley and Fowler are not hype, I assure you. Yes, they will need some work just like every single player coming out of college will.

      I’ve been saying since January I see absolutely zero chance that Scherff will be the pick at 5. I’ve been wrong plenty of times but I just don’t see it.

      • kenlinkins - Apr 26, 2015 at 11:15 AM

        Rich, I agree that the Redskins will not pick Scherff with the 5th pick but IMO he could play RT in the NFL and be a pretty good one at that. As for Beasley and Fowler, I still say that there is more sizzle than steak. I would love to see Williams fall to the Redskins as he is the most NFL ready of everyone in the draft. IMO If the Redskins do pick Fowler or Beasley Redskins fans could turn on them waiting for them to develop (i.e. Murphy from 2014 draft who could still be a pretty good player). Other than Williams this draft is very weak on NFL ready players but that seems to be the new norm and something all NFL fans must adjust to. It is getting harder for the avg fan to understand just what it takes to be a beast in the NFL. I guess the good news is that the Redskins roster is so talent poor that anyone drafted in the top 50 picks would help improve the over all talent. Just one fans thoughts!

        • Rich Tandler - Apr 26, 2015 at 3:41 PM

          Fans will turn on anyone and everyone until the team wins. And it doesn’t matter if coaches/GM have proper patience.

        • skinsgame - Apr 26, 2015 at 9:21 PM

          I have doubts about Williams. He is naturally strong but he lacks definition. That alone doesn’t mean much as we’ve seen many weight room warriors fail to get the mental part of the game down. But, it seems to me he may rely on his natural size and strength which has gotten him by rather easily amongst the college ranks. He may be overconfident in himself because things have been easy to this point. Could that mean he has peaked already and pros will expose him? I wonder. Haynesworth turned into that. He lost his drive.

    • ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:21 AM

      1. 11-5, I’m sticking with it. It’s spring and the flowers are blooming.

      2. Scherff might go at 9. If we trade with the Giants (Leonard Williams falls to 5, the Giants trade up for him with their 1st and 2nd rounders), maybe we’d be the ones to pick him there. But I’d rather have Ereck Flowers than a guard at 9.

      3. Shelton might go at 12. If we trade back with Cleveland, maybe we’d be the ones to pick him there.

    • obxskins - Apr 26, 2015 at 3:43 PM

      Spot om!!

  3. redskinscaio - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:10 AM

    If Mariota is drafted 2nd, the Skins will probably not trade back. If Mariota is not drafted second over all, the Redkins’ chances of trading down increases significantly.

    There are so many things that have to happen for the Skins to trade back. If the Titans decide to draft Williams with the second pick, then the Jaguars are next with the 3rd pick. Who is to say that the Jaguars don’t trade back? In my opinion, the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. They are the ones that need the most picks in the first 100 selections. Even the Redskins throttled them in week 2 last year. Oh… it was the highlight of the season for our boys in the Burgundy and Gold. Kerrigan had like 5 sacks…

    So, what do we have so far? Titans pick Williams and don’t trade back, Jaguars pick Fowler and thus don’t trade back, Raiders go receiver, either Cooper or White. Then it’s the Redskins.

    If Mariota is still on the board, which I doubt it, then who will want to move up? The possible candidates are the Jets, the Browns (but I doubt it since they have Manziel who they drafted in the first round last year), the Texans, and the Eagles, which I seriously doubt since they have Bradford, who I think is wayyyy better than Foley-boy. Also possible, but extremely unlikely, is if the Titans trade back up. Yes, I said it. They take Williams at two, and then trade their 2nd and 3rd, and next year’s 1st and 2nd, and Orakpo to the Skins for the 5th overall pick. BOOM!

    • redskinscaio - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:14 AM

      Rich, would you make that trade if you were the GM of the SKins? Trade away the 5th overall pick for the Titans’ 2015 2nd rounder, and 2015 3rd rounder of this year’s draft, plus next year’s 2016 1st rounder, and 2016 2nd rounder, and Brian Orakpo?

      • Rich Tandler - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:40 AM

        Well, it’s unrealistic for the Titans to trade Orakpo because they’d take a big dead cap hit and the Redskins didn’t want to pay him what he was making in TN a month and a half ago so why would they want to now? But setting that aside, I’d have to strongly consider this. Four top 100 picks for one would be pretty tempting.

        • redskinscaio - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:46 AM

          Why would the Redskins want to take on the Orakpo contract now? Because of two reasons. 1) it comes with 4 picks and 2) You’re the GM and you know that Orakpo is a beast. lol

  4. redskinscaio - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:34 AM

    The Skins are not doomed. If they run the ball more on 3rd and short and keep Alfred on the field during those 3rd downs, if they improve on their 2 minute offense, and if the special teams becomes average, the Skins will be fighting for a playoff spot.

    I felt like punching Gruden everytime the SKins got to like 3rd and 2, or 3rd and 3, even 3rd and four, and Helu would be on the field and the Skins would line up in an obvious passing formation! Dude, what are you doing! Alfred Morris averages over 4 yards a carry! At least come out in a run formation and give the defense something to think about! COME ON MAN. That’s one of my favorite things to watch when I watch the Patriots, they love to come out in a pass formation on 3rd and mediums and then run a draw play, which is a running play, and they would run right up the gut and pick up the first down.

    Something else that’s missing, was how Shanahan and Zorn used to fake the pass and hand the ball off, or run the draw plays… If you’re going to pass, fake the run, if you’re going to run then fake the pass. Duh. Football 101. HTTR

    • redskinscaio - Apr 26, 2015 at 10:43 AM

      And what is the deal with taking your best player (Morris) off the field during the most important play of the drive (3rd downs)!!!!???? I know I know, i heard of the so called 3rd down back or whatever, but to me, that is just irrational, and just dumb, like how 100 years ago, Doctors used to prescribe eating butter to improve the health of the heart, or how doctors used to claim smoking cigarettes wasn’t unhealhty….

      “Oh it’s 3rd down? Yes, let’s take out our best player and put in the back up. Yes, that sounds like a great idea. Brilliant! And make it quick cause I have to give this guy Maddof my life savings for a wonderful investment opportunity after the game. Brilliant!”

      • Skulb - Apr 26, 2015 at 1:42 PM

        Also drinking lead to cure gout. Apparently they did that to George Washington.

        Otherwise I agree 100% with Rich`s evaluation of the team`s prospects. I`ll be pleasantly surprised if they go 8-8 or better and disappointed if they go 4-12 or worse. To be diplomatic I`ll bet on 6-10. That would both be an improvement and probably not a total disaster.

      • hk2000 - Apr 26, 2015 at 1:45 PM

        I never understood it either. To be honest, The majority of coaches don’t strike me as especially smart or anything, they mostly follow some sort of guide lines that seem to have a life of their own. The problem is, for a head-coach to be the major reason behind a team’s success, he needs to be smart and have a strong leadership personality, not a common combo.

        • cmehustle - Apr 27, 2015 at 10:48 AM

          Yea, head coaches arent smart! The average fan knows abosolutely more about football then these coaches. Ridiculous smh……..

  5. sidepull - Apr 26, 2015 at 12:57 PM

    Not drinking Kool Aid. Not jumping on bandwagons. Not believing anything that comes out of anybody’s mouth until it is proven on the field. 6 wins tops. Reserved and hopeful.

  6. hk2000 - Apr 26, 2015 at 1:51 PM

    In theory, best case is 16-0, but in all likelihood, they get 2 to 6 wins. Each QB wins 2 games and the coach loses 10.

  7. bangkokben - Apr 26, 2015 at 7:11 PM

    I’ve been on seven wins since the end of 2014 due to the schedule. FA changed my mind with the spending spree in the AFC east dropping my total to six. RG3 finally says now what I wanted to hear at the end of 2014 in Jeff Darlington’s interview that I’m back up to seven as a baseline. New defense keeps team in games and offense is able to capitalize in games they shouldn’t be in. 9-7.

    • ET - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:13 PM

      I hope you’re right. I’ll be happy if they get to 7-9, half-crazed if they get to 9-7.

    • skinsgame - Apr 27, 2015 at 12:53 AM

      Up to now, I’ve been mostly in agreement with your posts. This team clearly has 12-14 wins in them.

    • redskinscaio - Apr 27, 2015 at 10:18 AM

      bangkokben – oh man, you bring up a great point. The Skins need to start preparing for the Dolphins week 1!!!! Who is going to block Suh ??!!!!!!!!! Chester? Ha, give me a break…. Lauvao, a life time back up for the Browns??!!!

      Great, week 1, and RGIII will be running for his life….again.

      Which is why I advocate on a daily basis that the Skins need to draft an inside lineman with the first pick! Sherff please. We need to field an elite interior line to open up running lanes and give RGIII time to throw the dang ball.

      • bangkokben - Apr 27, 2015 at 10:30 AM

        Nobody blocks Suh. Even if we draft Scherf at #5, he still isn’t capable of blocking Suh. Doesn’t mean we can’t upgrade the interior of the line but I doubt we do it without trading back.

        Of course, the following week we play a team that last year “our best quarterback” led us to a grand total of zero points.

  8. brucealmty - Apr 26, 2015 at 7:52 PM

    Redskins have enough needs so I’d really like to see them drop back about 5 spots, add that teams 2nd rnd pick to their own and with those picks draft a DL, ER, OL. Three picks in the top 40….I’ll take it.

  9. brucealmty - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:04 PM

    Redskins won 4 games last year. Any “losing” team, without a significant player upgrade (read new QB), that can double their wins the following season is doing great. They are in year 4 of RG3, year two of Jay G. and year one of Scot M. They have a full compliment of draft picks finally and if they can hit on 4 picks….I’m predicting 7-9 or 8-8 at best.

  10. abanig - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:33 PM

    I think the best case scenario for the Redskins is that Griffin finally takes the next step as a pocket passer and plays with confidence and in control throughout most of the season. Then, the defensive free agents we’ve added play up to their talent level and all play as well as they did last year or, if Goldson’s case, he plays as well as he did 3/4 years ago in San Fran.

    If the defensive free agents play up to their abilities and Robert has near or over a 4,000 yd, 25 TD passing season and a 500 yd or over with 3 to 5 rushing TD season, the Redksins can go 11-5.

    If like Rich said they have bad injuries to key players again and Robert or Kirk struggle with their consistency and turnovers the team could be as bad a 4-12 again.

    Honestly though, I think in the end, the Redskins will go 7-9 or 8-8 this season and Robert will show enough development that everyone will feel comfortable once again with him being the starting qb of the future once again.

  11. tralfaz10 - Apr 26, 2015 at 8:35 PM

    I say the Redskins go 10-6. They were 5-11 in 2011 and turned it around to go 10-6 in 2012 and won the division. Philly was 4-12 in 2012 and went on to go 10-6 in 2013 and won the division. Worst to first twice out of the last three years in the division. So it is not impossible. The team must have cohesiveness and chemistry and the division title is as much ours as anyone’s.

  12. Ju Diamondz - Apr 27, 2015 at 1:03 AM

    With everything that has gone on just this past season how the new coach came in and now is a little more prepared to handle the pressure in DC and making Rg3 the starter you have to up grade the o line with some of these picks this year if we do that the talent is there 4 a Ten Win season

  13. bowlregard - Apr 27, 2015 at 6:07 PM

    The best case win total is 16. They don’t play more than that. As for the rest, why is everyone so anxious to concede anything? Archives

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