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If your favorite draft prospect hasn’t visited Redskins Park don’t worry

Apr 17, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT


If you’re concerned because the Redskins have not brought the player you want them to take in the first round in for a visit, don’t worry about it. There is at about a 50 percent chance that it doesn’t matter.

Visits by a draft prospect to the team facility are very unreliable indicators as to whether or not a team will draft a given player. Last year all three of the quarterbacks taken in the first round, Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Johnny Manziel (Browns), and Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), visited the facilities of the teams that eventually drafted them. But of the other 29 first round picks only 16 had those pre-draft visits. That’s about 55 percent, so you could do almost as well predicting the draft using visits as a guide by flipping a coin.

Another number that works against tying visits to eventual draft selections is the number of visits permitted. A team is allowed 30 pre-draft visits per year and they get seven draft picks. Even if they only draft players who visited that still means that over three fourths of the visits were by players they don’t take.

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Sometimes visits are smokescreens, designed to make other teams believe there is interest in that player for various strategic purposes. The flip side of that coin is that sometimes a team doesn’t set up a visit to keep from tipping off their interest to other teams. Mike Shanahan famously had no visits or workouts with quarterback Jay Cutler in 2006 before trading up to draft the Vanderbilt product with the 11th pick of the first round.

So, the visits by Ereck Flowers and Dante Fowler and the upcoming visit by Vic Beasley mean either that there is or isn’t Redskins interest in them. Ditto on the fact that Kevin White, Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and other top-five possibilities have not visited. They’re either extremely interested to the point where they don’t want to tip their hands or they just aren’t under consideration.

The good news here is that we have less than two weeks until it all starts to unfold.

  1. mr.moneylover - Apr 17, 2015 at 1:29 PM

    Redskins really want dante flower jr. The Leonard williams visit is a smoke screen but if L.Williams do fall to them they will draft him….and I still think a possible trade with the browns or chargers is possible if marcus mariota still on the board at #5….these should be the players available around 5th pick…amari cooper,kevin white,trae wayne,marcus peters,dante flower jr., vic Beasley….cant really go wrong with these players left on the board…I think if we trade back to number 12 we can still get a CB like kevin johnson who is the most all around CB who can be physical at the line of scrimmage and can cover really well too …even tho mike mayco got trae wayne as the best CB he said kevin johnson is the safest CB to pick because his upside

    • deepball1 - Apr 17, 2015 at 3:44 PM

      Dante Fowler is not an ELITE pass rusher and I believe Scott M should know that if he is the top notch Draft GURU that we have been led to believe. Fowler had only 8 sacks this past season…..and THREE of those came in one game. Remind you of anybody????

  2. skins1970 - Apr 17, 2015 at 4:27 PM

    I would rather have Vic Beasley, Dante Fowler reminds me of Huey Richardson a former Florida Gator DE/OLB in the early 90’s who was supposed to be great but turned out to be a huge bust.

    • Lex - Apr 17, 2015 at 6:16 PM

      I agree Fowler reminds me of Orakpo under achiever….. Beasley way more upside more explosive

  3. sidepull - Apr 17, 2015 at 5:14 PM

    And I still would like trade back for Danny Shelton. That we have Knighton is no cause to not pull the trigger on Shelton. Too many elite pass rushers. If the Redskins take one of them at 5 its hit or miss because all of them are not going to be hits. They cant afford that. Trade back, Shelton or best O lineman. Archives

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