Apr 17, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
If you’re concerned because the Redskins have not brought the player you want them to take in the first round in for a visit, don’t worry about it. There is at about a 50 percent chance that it doesn’t matter.
Visits by a draft prospect to the team facility are very unreliable indicators as to whether or not a team will draft a given player. Last year all three of the quarterbacks taken in the first round, Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Johnny Manziel (Browns), and Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), visited the facilities of the teams that eventually drafted them. But of the other 29 first round picks only 16 had those pre-draft visits. That’s about 55 percent, so you could do almost as well predicting the draft using visits as a guide by flipping a coin.
Another number that works against tying visits to eventual draft selections is the number of visits permitted. A team is allowed 30 pre-draft visits per year and they get seven draft picks. Even if they only draft players who visited that still means that over three fourths of the visits were by players they don’t take.
Sometimes visits are smokescreens, designed to make other teams believe there is interest in that player for various strategic purposes. The flip side of that coin is that sometimes a team doesn’t set up a visit to keep from tipping off their interest to other teams. Mike Shanahan famously had no visits or workouts with quarterback Jay Cutler in 2006 before trading up to draft the Vanderbilt product with the 11th pick of the first round.
So, the visits by Ereck Flowers and Dante Fowler and the upcoming visit by Vic Beasley mean either that there is or isn’t Redskins interest in them. Ditto on the fact that Kevin White, Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and other top-five possibilities have not visited. They’re either extremely interested to the point where they don’t want to tip their hands or they just aren’t under consideration.
The good news here is that we have less than two weeks until it all starts to unfold.
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