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Can the Redskins pull off a draft day trade back deal?

Feb 22, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT

Marcus-Mariota

INDIANAPOLIS—If you polled Redskins fans about what they want their team to do with the fifth overall pick in the draft, the “trade back” option would at least win a plurality, if not a solid majority.

There has been plenty of unconfirmed talk here at the NFL Combine that the Redskins would indeed listen to offers to drop back and pick up some more selections to get to work on filling the myriad of team needs that currently exist.

So, let’s take a look at a few scenarios here. The one generating the biggest buzz while being the least likely is the Eagles trading up to get quarterback Marcus Mariota. Chip Kelly, formerly Mariota’s coach at Oregon, believes that Mariota would be the perfect QB for his system. The buzz is that he is willing to make major deal to try to get him.

One possibility being floated around is the Eagles moving up from their spot at 20th overall to the Redskins five hole spot in exchange for their first- and second-round picks in both 2015 and 2016.

I think that if it was any other team besides the Eagles the Redskins could be very interested in this deal. But the fact that they could be setting up their division rival with the quarterback they need to be competitive for the next 15 years would make Scot McCloughan think twice, even three times, about making a deal with Kelly. In fact, the Redskins might be inclined to take a lesser deal just to make sure that the Eagles don’t get Mariota.

A small deal they could make would be with the Jets, who pick right behind them at No. 6. New York may be in the market for Mariota and perhaps the Redskins could get a third to flip with the Jets. That would give the Jets insurance that the Redskins won’t make another deal and the Redskins could still get the player they wanted at No. 5.

There are options in between the huge deal and the little deal. There is talk that the Browns, who have the 12th and 19th picks, are very interested in Mariota. According to the draft trade points value chart, the Browns would be overpaying if they gave up both of their first-round picks for the fifth overall. The value chart is just a guideline so that doesn’t mean it won’t happen but perhaps that No. 12 and the Browns’ second-rounder is a more realistic price.

Those teams seem to be the primary candidates for Mariota’s services at the moment. But as the draft gets closer, other QB-needy teams might decide to jump in. But it seems unlikely that any deal will be made before the Redskins are on the clock. Their trading partner would need to make sure that Mariota is still there before pulling the trigger on a deal.

All the Redskins and potential trading partners can do is talk about possibilities and scenarios. If Mariota is still on the board when the Redskins’ pick comes up, the bidding could begin in earnest.

  1. ericskins44 - Feb 22, 2015 at 12:24 PM

    I say no to trading back unless someone like Cleveland gives up 2 first rounders. We need a stud like Gregory or Fowler JR. Danny Shelton would be nice to. I don’t care what the chart says about value, we mortgaged everything for RG3 and are still payin for it. We need top end talent and we need it now if we ever start planning on making some headway.

  2. bowlregard - Feb 22, 2015 at 12:28 PM

    In the Philly area sports talk radio has gone over these scenarios ad nauseum. A common scenario put forward includes the Eagles trading Fletcher Cox.

    • Joe Greene - Feb 22, 2015 at 4:23 PM

      A trade back plus a player who could legitimately be a starting DE for us? As long as there are other picks involved, I’ll take that.

      • ajbus1 - Feb 23, 2015 at 6:43 PM

        I would too. On top of it I’m not convinced we’d be setting up the Eagles at all. Why is it a forgone conclusion that Kelly’s system is so fool proof and will work in the NFL long term? Let him overpay for Mariota.

  3. kenlinkins - Feb 22, 2015 at 12:43 PM

    Rich: Do you think that the new GM would play major draft day chicken if Mariota is still on the board by drafting him and then saying the price for QB just went up (assumes new GM wants to keep him away from the Eagles, the Jets try to low ball, and Cleveland is unwilling to give up what it takes). Also, IYO, what offer would the Eagles have to make before the new GM figured it was just to good to pass up? Would the new GM have to feel that Mariota is the BPA or would he just have to be the best value? (God, I wished I knew the grade / value the new GM has placed on RG3 and Cousins, or is that the whole debate?).

    • kenlinkins - Feb 22, 2015 at 12:57 PM

      Just saw that there only 5 DB’s at this Combine that are 6’2″ or taller (and only one is a CB, he is rated 7th round or UDFA). There are another 10 DB’s that are 6’1″. If you are in the market for BIG DB’s, this is a very limited market. I wonder how many teams will over reach for that “tall” DB in 2015? I also wonder if the new “BIG” CB model is way over blown.

      • Joe Greene - Feb 22, 2015 at 4:24 PM

        The Skins spent several years with nothing but 5’10” – 5’11” CBs until drafting Amerson. Just getting some 6′ or 6’1″ guys would be big enough for now.

        • bk70 - Feb 22, 2015 at 8:03 PM

          Courtney Bridget Jr is 6-3, DaMon Cromartie-Smith is 6-2, also Phillip Thomas and Duke Ihenacho are 6-1.

          They even brought in a 6-6 WR, Braylon Bell.

          We’ll see how this all shakes out during training.

  4. Kyle m - Feb 22, 2015 at 3:13 PM

    i could definetly see garcon getting paired into a deal, 5th pick and garcon would require much more from teams interested but with cleveland losing Gordon, I feel that this may be a possibility. I, for what it’s worth, love garcon but what are your thoughts on a package deal and what it would require other teams to give up. It would also save cap space, would it not?

  5. gonavybeatarmy - Feb 22, 2015 at 3:50 PM

    Rich-

    If the Skins refused to make a deal with the Eagles for the compensation you’ve indicated- 2015 and 2016 1sts and 2nds- only because it’s the Eagles, I’d be as down on the organization as ever.

    If the organization truly is fully empowering McCloughan to run personnel and he doesn’t have Mariota as the top player on their board at 5, they should make the deal that yields the best return irrespective of the counter-party. The chance that Mariota will be the QB and Kelly will be the coach of the team fifteen years is so low that it makes the proposition nearly silly. Belichik is the only coach in the league with that level of tenure. And once Kelly eventually leaves Philadelphia Mariota’s probable value to the Eagles falls dramatically.

    The Skins finally have their first great personnel man since Beathard, and the more picks McCloughan has the greater chance he has to find talent.

    • Joe Greene - Feb 22, 2015 at 4:26 PM

      There’s no way we can justify turning down those 4 picks with all the needs we have.

      • kenlinkins - Feb 22, 2015 at 8:46 PM

        Agreed, 100%, that would give the Redskins 3 picks in about the top 50 for two years running. You should be able to find 2 impact players plus 4 good starters. That would sure increase the talent level of the Redskins roster for the 2016 season! And if you got lucky and found a few Special teams types & back up types later in the both drafts, WOW! “Hey Philly, want to deal”?

        • tareq302 - Feb 23, 2015 at 10:17 AM

          We could start getting what we gave away for RG3. I think it would be an excellent trade for us, division rival or not.

    • thankslittlebrandonbanks - Feb 22, 2015 at 8:28 PM

      Definitely give them Mariotta in that scenario and laugh all the way to the bank.

      • ajbus1 - Feb 23, 2015 at 6:46 PM

        Totes.

  6. goback2rfk - Feb 22, 2015 at 3:54 PM

    Heck yeah we need to stick it too someone like the Rams did to us in 2012..

  7. 214hof - Feb 22, 2015 at 8:33 PM

    Honestly, moving back from 5 to 20 is a big drop in talent. Probably only worth it if Fletcher Cox is bundle with the picks.

  8. brucefan1 - Feb 22, 2015 at 9:24 PM

    Personally, I like swapping down one pick with the Jet’s and getting all he can possibly get from them. (But then, I’m cautious.)

    I’m up in the Tri-State region (NY/NJ/CT — not the DMV!) and it’s common knowledge that the Jets are sweating Mariota…BAD!! It seems like they could be squeezed for more than just book value for that swap — especially if its known that there are other suitors for that pick. If the Skins could ever get #6 AND #37 from Gang Green, I say take it! (Or is that a no-brainer?)

    After that, IF Scott thinks he can get a “can’t miss” type (is there even such a thing?) at #12, I’d have no problem dealing with Cleveland. If he could get 12 AND 19 this deal would go to number ONE – with a bullet, but the most he could probably get is 12 & 43, so it’s allure is somewhat diminished.

    The third option, imho, would be moving down to picks TWENTY(!) and 52 (and who knows how low Philly’s picks might be NEXT year. Yikes!). That not only drops the available candidates into a whole different level then the top-10 guys, but, as RT writes, gives Kelly the QB he’s said to be jonesing for. The Skins COULD live to rue that move…or it could all blow up in Chip’s face! (Stranger things have happened!)

  9. john reno - Feb 23, 2015 at 12:27 AM

    Maybe if mariota’s is still around at 5, take him! We need a qb more than anything. I loved rg3 but he’s shot!

  10. markywahlberg - Feb 23, 2015 at 2:04 AM

    Tennessee is the more likely team to trade their pick for mariotta prior to the draft…until then there would be no sense in any team trading up with us….I think we need to plan on drafting the best lineman.

    The only o lineman who are suited for left tackle are reaches this early but all are safe picks and address a major need.

    • skinsgame - Feb 23, 2015 at 6:09 AM

      Rich wrote that the Redskins would be on the clock before any trade with them were to happen.

  11. skinsgame - Feb 23, 2015 at 6:15 AM

    The kool aid is flowing, it seems. I like the Redskins to trade down with Philly for Fletcher Cox and their number 1, 4 and 5 picks. Then, we trade Garçon to Cleveland for their 19 overall and Cousins goes to New England for their numbers 3 and 4. Jordan Reed gets packaged with Deangelo Hall for the Vikings 1st pick too. It’s all coming together.

    • 214hof - Feb 23, 2015 at 10:56 AM

      Your in lala land

    • bangkokben - Feb 23, 2015 at 11:13 AM

      And some people didn’t want to speculate on the schedule. I love the sarcasm.

  12. shermanp79 - Feb 23, 2015 at 8:59 AM

    It would take some serious self confidence to trade within the Division. Although, we know the struggles with RG3, it’s not guaranteed he has success. It could screw up the Eagles. I don’t think this year and next is enough. We are dropping 15 picks and that is a bit lower than I would prefer. They could still get a quality player but may miss out on someone they really like. I don’t think they do a deal. It’s just not enough, you are basically getting 2 2nd round picks and a later 1st rounder. We gave up more moving 6 spots. It is a tough choice though, 4 starters instead of one. I think they can get that in any deal. When a team wants a QB, they will pay for it. You always get more with a QB .I’m OK trading down but not much further than CLE at 12. if they don’t have a guy there they must take, then gain some picks I wonder if PHI would jump above us if we are unwilling to do a deal with them. Would TEN do a deal? That would really take a lot but that could help them build that team. If they don’t take one themselves. I think they pass having grabbed one last year. They would have feel it was a big upgrade. Some teams may question his ability to adapt looking at RG3. We have to remember RG3 is unwilling to play to his strengths. He also isn’t putting the time in studying film. I’m sure that won’t be an issue, especially for Kelly, already knowing him. It should be interesting to see how hard they try to move up.

  13. boo Wiley - Feb 23, 2015 at 10:12 AM

    Redskins need to trade back get o-lineman early,sign Rak to minimum deal.Keep Hall and get safety help via free agency and don’t give up on Suh.Cut Garcon and or Roberts

    • O - Feb 23, 2015 at 1:16 PM

      We’ll cut 2 starting WRs, use a majority of the cap on Suh. Who’s catching the ball and returning kicks? If Rak says no to a minimum deal, then what?

  14. shayne - Feb 23, 2015 at 1:27 PM

    Trade RG3 for a top pick and take Mariota at the 5 pick

  15. Please draft good - Feb 24, 2015 at 10:39 AM

    I don’t know a lot about this stuff but I would like to see the Redskins draft the best cb possible. Does anyone remember how bad we suck at cb? I don’t know what value is placed on the cb’s. Don’t they usually go around ten or twelve? No way would I trade with a division rival. That’s just dumb.

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