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Draft trade back scenarios for the Redskins

Apr 29, 2014, 11:55 AM EDT

Bruce-Allen-press-club

The Redskins could use an infusion of young talent from next month’s NFL draft. The problem is that that have only six picks and they are missing a first rounder. They could improve their chances of landing good contributors and perhaps even a star player or two by acquiring more draft picks.

One way is to trade away players on the roster but the Redskins are not an exceptionally deep team (that’s why they need help from the draft) and the chances of anyone coming up with an offer for any player besides Kirk Cousins are slim. And the backup QB might not be going anywhere.

The other option is to trade down. Let’s take a look at what the Redskins might be able to get in a swap down from their initial spot, No. 34 overall, by using the draft value trade chart. The chart is just a guide but it gives us a ballpark idea of what the picks are worth.

Right now, the only team with an extra second-round pick is the 49ers, who hold overall picks 56 and 61. The could package those picks to move up to No. 34 and they might ask for the Redskins’ fifth-round pick to even things out. The issue here is that the Redskins would not be adding to their quantity of picks but the quality would improve.

The Redskins could pick up an additional pick around the middle of the third round by moving back to the latter stages of the second round. A move back of about 20 spots to 53rd overall is worth a mid-third-round pick.

To pick up a fourth they would need to move back about 10 spots, moving back five or six spots is worth a fifth.

Trading down in the third or fourth is a possibility but the trade value chart tells you that those moves yield only late-round picks. Still, the more picks you have the better chance there is of finding an Alfred Morris sometime on Saturday.

Moving up is not as simple as many fans may make it out to be. The Redskins would have to be on the clock with multiple options as to two to select. A team behind them would want to have a particular player who is on the board badly enough to give up picks in what has been called the deepest draft in years.

  1. mauriceatwood - Apr 29, 2014 at 12:06 PM

    The Redskins would be smart to do some moving around for sure, but my opinion is that they need to select at 34 when it is their time unless they are given an offer that just can’t be refused. Otherwise, since they select in the 2nd spot every round they may be in position to trade down for an extra pick or two.

  2. mrx149 - Apr 29, 2014 at 1:00 PM

    Best case scenario is for QB needy teams with the first 10 picks to decide there are no QBs worth their first round pick and wait until the second round. If a few of these teams decide to wait until begging of the second round, there could be a bidding war for Washington’s #34 pick. Here is the order. (34) Washington Redskins (35) Cleveland Browns (36) Oakland Raiders (37) Atlanta Falcons (38) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39) Jacksonville Jaguars (40) Minnesota Vikings (41) Buffalo Bills (42) Tennessee Titans.

    • ceetown22 - Apr 29, 2014 at 2:28 PM

      I don’t think ATL is looking for a QB… but I see what you are saying

      • mrx149 - Apr 30, 2014 at 12:42 PM

        I was just putting all the teams in 2nd round draft order. One thing I forgot about is Oakland. They picked up Matt Schaub and may be out of the QB race. If Cleveland takes a QB in the first round, it will devalue our #34 pick because there is less pressure to leapfrog Cleveland. Leaving the only QB needy teams as (38)Buccaneers (39) Jaguars (40)Vikings (41)Bills (42) Titans and they can deal to trade up with (34)Redskins (35)Browns (36)Raiders (37)Falcons.

        • mrx149 - Apr 30, 2014 at 12:47 PM

          Cleveland has two first round picks, and will likely have a new QB by the end of the first round, so my scenario kind of went out the window. Still possible, but not nearly as attractive as I had first thought.

  3. kenlinkins - Apr 29, 2014 at 1:11 PM

    IMO the CBA has increased the value of draft picks as listed on the Draft Value Charts. It has also decreased the value of players picked before the new CBA went into effect. (you wouldn’t trade a top 10 pick for T Williams at $17 million when you can draft a OT and keep him for 5 years for another $10 million or so). Now a team can lock up a 6th round guy (like Morris) for 4 years at bargain prices without any much more guaranteed money than 2010 6th pick with a 2 year deal. With all players being drafted gaining a 4 year deal even the lower round picks are worth more. Fans seem to be just now picking up on this. IMO teams will want more for even lower round picks as that is where you can really help your Cap Number when you hit a home run with that lower round pick (again – like Morris). There is also less risk on higher round pick as a High Pick Bust cost you much less(increasing value of higher picks). Players picked before the new CBA are in for a shock when they become Free Agents and find their value to be much less than the old days and teams are not willing to give up Draft Picks RFA (or a trade for a player under contract that started under the old CBA). IMO this will lead to less Draft Day deals than before as GM’s work the new system with their own Value Charts instead of the ones we fans see on web sites. RICH: IYO is the above about correct (i.e. value of draft picks)?

    • ceetown22 - Apr 29, 2014 at 2:27 PM

      I like your post, but it’s kind of hard to read… next time organize your thoughts and break this up into a couple of paragraphs…. but again good post!

    • Rich Tandler - Apr 29, 2014 at 6:31 PM

      I think the value chart needs to be altered near the top due to the CBA due to the lower salaries making those picks less expensive and therefore less risky. as you get further down in the first round and into the second and beyond the difference between current and pre-2011 salaries is minimal.

      > >

  4. internetcareer - Apr 29, 2014 at 6:13 PM

    In someways I would love to see the Skins trade back and pick up a 3rd round pick or a 4th round pick just because I love the draft and want to see the Skins on the clock. In fact they could then trade a 3rd round pick for an extra 5th round pick too….BUT…..REMEMBER…quantity does not always equal QUALITY.

    I still hope that the Skins trade back a few notches in the 2nd and still grab Marcus Martin the bulldozing Center. Then Kory Lic can be a backup left guard and backup center because he is still not heavy enough to take on Nose tackles. In fact I am going to bed tonight and pray that that occurs. lol

    If it doesn’t happen…then I;ll just kick back and enjoy the draft anyway.

    • jmg169 - Apr 29, 2014 at 10:51 PM

      Love that thought. Unless we are targeting a specific player at 34, then trade back a few notches, pick up a good 2nd rd prospect, then trade back in each subsequent round.

      No reason we can’t parlay 6 picks into at least 8. The more picks, the better, even if we don’t trade back with that 2nd rd pick. In fact, I’d like to keep that 2nd rd pick to take a shot at a possible starter at CB, OL, S, or ILB. Then start wheeling and dealing with the 3rd rd pick and beyond.

      We’re not just “one player away” from glory, we need good solid bodies from the draft, and we need lots of them to try out. Pick 6 won’t make it: trade back, but do it to our best advantage.

  5. mgcelestino - May 5, 2014 at 12:59 AM

    i think having the second pick of each round with the exception of the 1st would give this team alot of leverage in regards to trading. if this team gets an offer for a mid round pick in the 2nd, mid round 3rd and 4th, i would go ahead and trade. i would then trade that mid round 2nd for a later second, another 3rd and 4th. we would then have late 2nd, 3-2, 3-mid, late 3rd, 4-2, 4-mid, late 4, 5,6,7. with the first 6 picks, this team could get a quality ot,og,ss,cb,dt,and te or wr. 2-3 starters possibly. i could see getting a minimum of 8 overall picks in this draft.

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