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Need to Know: Which Redskins stay and who goes?

Jan 13, 2014, 5:52 AM EST

Orakpo-vs.-TEN

Here is what you need to know on this Monday, January 13, 115 days from the NFL Draft.

Nickel coverage

Of the Redskins’ 18 unrestricted free agents, five of them were originally drafted by the team. Here are my odds on the Redskins keeping them after free agency starts on March 11:

1. LB Perry Riley—With the Redskins likely to stay in a 3-4 defense they need Riley to take over for London Fletcher calling signals. Inside linebackers generally don’t cost that much and Riley is likely to be much more valuable to the Redskins than to any other team. Chances of returning: 95%

2. LB Brian Orakpo—It seems likely that the Redskins will make  a very fair offer to the player who has been at least tied for the team lead in sacks every season he’s played for them except for the one where he missed 14 games due to injury. There is a chance, however, that another team could come in and make an offer that is well above market price. The Redskins could lose him if that happens. Another option is the franchise tag but the team will have to decide if he’s worth right around $10 million for the 2014 season. Chances of returning 70%

3. LB Rob Jackson—He finally got a chance to play regularly when Brian Orakpo was injured in 2012 and he played well. In 2013, however, Orakpo was back and Jackson played only 186 snaps. Stability in the defensive staff may help him here. His lack of 2013 action might keep down his demand league wide but Jim Haslett and Raheem Morris could push to get a deal done with him based on 2012. This one is hard to gauge. Chances of returning 60%

4. S Reed Doughty—He started nine games last year and like most of the defense he had his ups and downs. The Redskins hope to get better performance at safety than the had in 2013 (better than have had for the last six years, for that matter) so they may want to move on from Doughty. But he is versatile and the team might want to hang on to him if for no other reason that he is one of the few good special teams performers on the roster. Chances of returning: 40%

5. TE Fred Davis—If Mike Shanahan had somehow stayed on as coach the chances of Davis, who wound up in Shanahan’s doghouse for much of the season, would be near zero. But perhaps Jay Gruden sees a player who he can pair with Jordan Reed to so some of the things he did with Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert in Cincinnati (combined 85 receptions, 903 yards, 6 TDs). Davis coming back still doesn’t seem very likely to happen but, yes, I’m sayin’ there’s a chance. Chances of return 10%

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Timeline

—It’s been 15 days since the Redskins played a game; it will be about 237 days until they play another one.

Days until: NFL Combine 37; NFL free agency 57; Offseason workouts start 84

In case you missed it

Do the Redskins have the players for a 3-4 defense

  1. hailyeah1 - Jan 13, 2014 at 8:48 AM

    well Riley is pretty much a lock but who moves in to the lineup to replace Fletcher it very could be Jackson but he is more of an outside lb ,cant remember who else at the moment we have to play there.if by chance Orakpo leaves then Jackson would move into his spot .
    Doughty is an enigma just good enough to stick on the team but not good enough in pass coverage but good on the run .
    Davis? don’t know what happened could it be he hasn’t recovered from injury or was in Shannahans doghouse for some reason .he might stay on due to Reeds injury situation .
    time will tell and it will be interesting seeing who stays goes and who we bring onto the team.

  2. alomd11 - Jan 13, 2014 at 10:00 AM

    Nice write up Rich. I think the defense is more of an enigma than anything and until the final word comes out on the defensive staff, I don’t think we’ll have any idea. I do think Orakpo is back as is Riley. With the safeties on the roster, I don’ t think Reed will be here. And I think I’m one of the few, and probably wrong for this, who thinks Fred Davis may not just be back, but may play a key role opposite of Jordan.

    • Rich Tandler - Jan 13, 2014 at 10:16 AM

      If Davis is back it won’t be to sit at the end of the bench or to watch in street clothes. If he’s back, he’ll get significant playing time.

  3. colmac69 - Jan 13, 2014 at 11:40 AM

    Defense nxt yr have cofield (nt), kerrigan orapko riley (lb), hall amerson merriweather (sec)….required inside lb, safety and upgrade two def ends as starters…..doughty back for spec teams,, jackson gd backup….davis is interesting one….if gruden likes davis and his head is right then davis and reed could b a great combination……but think davis b looking for new team

  4. kenlinkins - Jan 13, 2014 at 11:42 AM

    IMO Riley is a lock at about $5 million a per for 4 years (Odds 100%). If Morris and Haslett stay then Orakpo go’s, you can not keep doing the same thing and then complain about the results. Tagging Orakpo only make sense if you get a DT/NT or DE who can pass rush from the 3-4, if we use the 4-3 more in 2014 Orkapo is not worth $10 million when Jackson can do the job for $2.5 million (just paying Orakpo more money will not improve our pass rush).Orakpo odds 30%, Jacksons odds 80%. Doughty signs again with us but him making the roster is about 30%, the new coaching staff will sign every Un-drafted FS/SS who can run a 4.5 40 and tackle hoping to find a few Special Teams players (Also Rambo and Thomas should start reviewing Punt and Kick off coverage right now if they hope to make the 53 man roster). That leaves Davis, does anyone know how he gets along with RG3? That seems like the key question to answer. If RG3 wants him here, here he will be! If I was Davis I would want to prove to Redskins fans that the problem was Mike and Kyle, no better way to do that is by staying. But how do you explain to Jordon Reed TE that you are paying Davis $3 million as insurance to his $650K LOL ? Davis Odds, 100% (if he is on RG3’s Christmas card list, 0% if he is not).

    • aprilwalker2013 - Jan 13, 2014 at 2:56 PM

      Ha! Like your take Ken!! I don’t know if Davis is on Christmas list or not, will be interesting to see..Davis can play if his head is right, I agree, if QB likes him, his odds go way up!! HTTR

  5. internetcareer - Jan 14, 2014 at 5:16 PM

    I agree, paying Orakpo more money won’t improve our pass rush. he’ll still get 10 sacks with 5 coming in 2 games. Perry Riley and Chris Baker are the 2 best run stuffers we have so keep them.

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