Comments on: Talent, Part 1

By: Scott

Scott — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 00:39:48 +0000

Using your “replacement” analysis, Landry, Hall, and Rogers are not playing at replacement level. Hall played that way in the 2nd half of last season, but has not this season. Rogers…I’ve seen nothing to justify him being better than average, if even that.

Call a spade a spade…I’m just tired of seeing teams chew up the Redskins on pass plays. I know much of the problem is lack of pass rush, but holy cow we get burned more than a short circuited iron through the air.

By: Adam M.

Adam M. — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:50:16 +0000

I respect your work but I have to disagree about your ratings. Based on what they are today, not their rep or what they used to be, the only guys who are truly above replacement level on this team are Samuels, Cooley, Haynesworth, Fletcher and Smith. That’s it — the entire list. Orakpo and Landry could well get there, but they aren’t yet.

But it’s even worse because Samuels and Fletcher are clearly heading towards the end of their careers, while Haynesworth will always be basically a part-time player and Smith is a punter. The way I see it, the only player on this team who just about every other team in the league would want is Cooley.

I don’t know enough to make comparisons to other teams, but I doubt that there are too many others who only have one really good young player. One. The Redskins have to be one of the least talented teams in the NFL. Thanks Dan and Vinny.

By: Boss Hog

Boss Hog — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:16:14 +0000

Rich, I guess I’m an even more apologetic Campbell apologist than you are. I think Jason is league average, and in addition to the seven teams you mentioned — Detroit, Tampa, Rams, 49ers, Browns, Bills, Raiders — I think he is pretty clearly a step above the QBs for Miami (Chad Henne? Really?), Tennessee (Kerry Collins can’t do a thing anymore), and Carolina (Delhomme plays behind an all-world O-line and has a top-5 WR, and he’s still erratic/crappy behind center).

So that’s a good 10 teams he would improve, and I’d also argue that JC is *not clearly worse* than several other starters –Schaub in Houston, Garrard in Jacksonville, Cassel in KC, Orton in Denver, Sanchez for the Jets (sure, young Mark has looked promising so far, but their defense has been winning those games — his numbers are actually pretty weak).

I guess what I’m trying to say is I’d put Jason at somewhere around the 15-17th best starter in the league, at or around replacement level. JC’s numbers in traditional stats like QB rating (ranked 16th) and Yards/Attempt (11th), and ‘advanced’ metrics like Football Oustiders’ DVOA (20th among current starters) basically confirm this.

On the whole, though, I guess Campbell is in a pretty sad place when his most devoted defenders are making grand efforts simply to convince people that he is “average.” I do think that’s true, and that he is good enough to win in the right situation, but it’s also all to clear that this is not the right situation. And he’s not good enough to win games on his own. I really do wish the front office had emphasized the O-Line a bit more in the past few years, and given JC a better fighting chance, and I definitely don’t see Todd or Colt taking us anywhere we haven’t been, but I probably won’t shed too many tears if we’ve got a brand new Q next seasont

By: Joe in Raleigh

Joe in Raleigh — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:25:43 +0000

I don’t understand the Landry thing. Statistically, in 2 years as a starter, he’s a notch below Ohalete. If that’s not replaceable, I don’t know what is.

I know I’ve said this before, but Landry has been getting by for too long on his draft status. When I watch the truly premier safeties in the league, it’s obvious how far Landry is from being elite — or even above average for that matter.

By: Adam

Adam — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 03:00:08 +0000

Football outsiders runs metrics that evaulate several positions. In the Redskins case, Camble is playing at a similar level to the average NFL QB, Randle El is the only receiver playing above the average reciever, Moss is below average and the other receivers are well below average. The O Line is 18th in average yards per carry (and 10th in 3rd down success) but 25th in sack prevention rate. On defense the biggest weakness is throwing to slot receivers and tight ends and they’re a little above average on stopping the run. It’s early so opponent strength isn’t fully accounted for, but that mostly fits with what I’ve seen (I think the O-line is performing worse and the D-line is mostly not living up to the resources invested).

By: Chip

Chip — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:12:12 +0000

I’m not sure I’d put Sellers or Landry above replacement. They’re solid performers, but too many mistakes too often. I think if Landry were allowed to play SS, he’d be a much better fit.

I also question Rogers as an above average fit. His first half of last year was that, but since the injury, I haven’t seen it. This year, his technique is terrible (first case – the TD he gave up in the Bucs game).

And while I appreciate the job Daniels does anchoring LDE against the run and helping Blache’s D, he is no threat to rush the passer any more. I swear the drop-off from him to Jarmon doesn’t appear that great, and Jarmon is still raw. Daniels probably is a below replacement candidate (and really, I love how he fits into Blache’s system).

That makes my list 9 above, 13 average, and 10 below. Seems more in line with how this team is performing.

By: HoC

HoC — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:08:30 +0000

I really hate to say it, but I think I have turned on JC. And this is coming from someone who owns one of his jerseys.

I don’t think he has been given a fair shot, I don’t think too many QBs would succeed with different coordinators every year, I don’t think that even Brady would have any success with this O-line….but…at some point a really good QB would be showing more signs by now.

Also, what happened to his deep ball? He used to be able to throw a nice deep pass but this season has been awful (minus that one pass to Moss).

He is pretty far down on the list of problems on this team…but I do think he is now on the list of problems.

By: Ninja

Ninja — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:29:22 +0000

Rich, thanks for putting Jason Campbell where he belongs, below replacement. I am so tired of everyone defending this kid for no good reason. At the beginning of this year our line was healthy and everyone said they were great. JC was in his second year of Zorn’s offense and knew it well. But JC still sucked. They blamed Zorn. The line is now hurt, it’s now their fault JC is doing bad.

Al Saunders is one of the better offensive minds in football. He brought his system, JC still sucked, and it was Al Saunders systems fault.

Joe Gibbs, who won three superbowls, brought his system. JC still sucked. It was Joe Gibbs and his systems fault.

They say JC is still young and learning. Ask Flacco, Ryan, and Sanchez how that learning thing is going. They are all doing a hell of a lot better than JC yet we need to give him more time.

How many excuses do we have for this kid?

And I think Heyer is better than you give him credit for. He, like the rest of our Oline, is made to look worse than they are because JC holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league except Big Ben.

Amazing how good our broken line looked when Todd Collins came into the game two years ago.

By: tdbowles

tdbowles — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:08:57 +0000

i agree with Aravan’s statement with Landry. he can be above replacement, but he is not there yet. i would add that Horton will continue to develop into above replacement status, but right now is where he should be. Golstons seems like the kind of player that winning teams, but not a star on one. I would add Lorenzo Alexander as an replacement player needed for winning teams b/c of his effort and versatility. i think it’s too soon to put Kelly below replacement and Thomas should also be seen as having potential.
the problem with this team is that while our defense utilizes its young talent, our offense for a long time now, has been unable. this is either due to a weak o-line or poor coaching and most likely both.

By: Aravan

Aravan — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:28:44 +0000

Personally, I’d probably bump Randle El up to replacement as a slot WR, but he’s definitely below replacement as a #2. I think Campbell is perfectly average and should also be replacement level – I think Carolina would have axed Delhomme if they’d had Campbell, and he’s definitely in the middle third of QBs in the league. I’m beginning to wonder whether Landry deserves the status he has among Redskins fans – he’s had a few big stops at the ends of games, but he just doesn’t seem to have the full-game presence a top safety in the league should. I think he’s closer to replacement than I want him to be.