Chris Cooley is one of the Redskins' A-list players
One topic of debate surrounding the Washington Redskins’ recent troubles is their talent level. On one hand we have Clinton Portis claiming that the Redskins are the most talented team in the NFL. On the other we have analysts and fans who believe that the team is devoid of talent and that it will take years to rebuild.
As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between the extreme statements. What I am presenting here is a very rough attempt to evaluate how much talent the Redskins have right now and how it fits together.
Today in Part 1 I’ll introduce a system to break down the talent level of the Redskins’ primary players and take a stab at seeing how they stack up. Part 2, where I look at what it all means, comes tomorrow.
Talent is in the eye of the beholder. There are serious disagreements about players’ abilities among the people who devote their lives to player evaluation just as there are among fans and other observers.
So, what I’m going to present is my evaluation, my opinion or, more accurately, my best guess. I’m going to use a rough system using terminology that is frequently used in evaluating baseball players, the concept of replacement-level players.
It’s simple. If you put a replacement-level player into the average lineup the team’s performance would not change in any appreciable way. A player above replacement level would make the mythical “average” team perform better and add wins to the total. One below replacement level would lead to more losses.
In baseball there is a very neat statistical formula that allows for an objective determination as to where a player falls on the replacement level scale. Football does not lend itself to such neat statistical analysis; even the players who generate statistics are so dependent on others to compile those numbers that it makes the numbers less useful in determining the player’s value. That makes any analysis very subjective.
Here is my subjective analysis of where the Redskins’ primary players fall in the replacement scale. I’ve included the starters, primary special teams players, and the primary role players. As you can see, I’m assuming that Chris Samuels’ injury is short term, something we’re not certain of at the moment.
Above replacement: (12) Samuels, Moss, Cooley, Portis, Sellers, Haynesworth, Orakpo, Fletcher, Landry, Hall, Rogers, Smith
Replacement: (11) Dockery, Rabach, Golston, Griffin, Carter, Tryon, Suisham, Horton, McIntosh, Daniels, Doughty
Below replacement: (9) Rinehart, Heyer, M. Williams, Kelly, Randle El (WR), Campbell, Cartwright (KR), Randle El (PR), Betts
I’m not going to go through and explain/defend every one of these evaluations but I’ll touch on a few that some might argue.
Clinton Portis may not make the average team better if he’s the prime back carrying 20-25 times a game. But most teams could find a role for him that would make their offenses more productive. I’m essentially saying the same thing about Orakpo; most teams could find a way to use him to make their defenses better.
I’m assuming that someday soon Mike Sellers will cease targeting certain defenders and start focusing on taking out players who are an immediate threat to the ball carrier.
Some will wonder what Justin Tryon is doing in a list of competent players. These are the people who remember him getting lit up the past two years in preseason games. I’m evaluating him as a nickel back, not as a starting corner who is asked to play on an island. He has performed acceptably in the third CB role.
I tried to justify moving Jason Campbell up to being a replacement level player because he’s having a decent season statistically but I couldn’t. I tried to figure out what teams he would start for if he was traded tomorrow. None in the NFC East. Tampa Bay in the NFC South. None in the NFC North with the possible exception of Detroit if they wanted to bench Matt Stafford. The Rams and possibly the 49ers in the NFC West. In the AFC the only teams he’d improve if he was the starter are Cleveland, Oakland, Buffalo, and possibly Houston. I’m a card-carrying Campbell apologist but I have to say that he’s below replacement.
Tomorrow I’ll look at what this means. In the meantime feel free to debate my evaluations in the comments.
Personally, I’d probably bump Randle El up to replacement as a slot WR, but he’s definitely below replacement as a #2. I think Campbell is perfectly average and should also be replacement level – I think Carolina would have axed Delhomme if they’d had Campbell, and he’s definitely in the middle third of QBs in the league. I’m beginning to wonder whether Landry deserves the status he has among Redskins fans – he’s had a few big stops at the ends of games, but he just doesn’t seem to have the full-game presence a top safety in the league should. I think he’s closer to replacement than I want him to be.
i agree with Aravan’s statement with Landry. he can be above replacement, but he is not there yet. i would add that Horton will continue to develop into above replacement status, but right now is where he should be. Golstons seems like the kind of player that winning teams, but not a star on one. I would add Lorenzo Alexander as an replacement player needed for winning teams b/c of his effort and versatility. i think it’s too soon to put Kelly below replacement and Thomas should also be seen as having potential.
the problem with this team is that while our defense utilizes its young talent, our offense for a long time now, has been unable. this is either due to a weak o-line or poor coaching and most likely both.
Rich, thanks for putting Jason Campbell where he belongs, below replacement. I am so tired of everyone defending this kid for no good reason. At the beginning of this year our line was healthy and everyone said they were great. JC was in his second year of Zorn’s offense and knew it well. But JC still sucked. They blamed Zorn. The line is now hurt, it’s now their fault JC is doing bad.
Al Saunders is one of the better offensive minds in football. He brought his system, JC still sucked, and it was Al Saunders systems fault.
Joe Gibbs, who won three superbowls, brought his system. JC still sucked. It was Joe Gibbs and his systems fault.
They say JC is still young and learning. Ask Flacco, Ryan, and Sanchez how that learning thing is going. They are all doing a hell of a lot better than JC yet we need to give him more time.
How many excuses do we have for this kid?
And I think Heyer is better than you give him credit for. He, like the rest of our Oline, is made to look worse than they are because JC holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league except Big Ben.
Amazing how good our broken line looked when Todd Collins came into the game two years ago.
I really hate to say it, but I think I have turned on JC. And this is coming from someone who owns one of his jerseys.
I don’t think he has been given a fair shot, I don’t think too many QBs would succeed with different coordinators every year, I don’t think that even Brady would have any success with this O-line….but…at some point a really good QB would be showing more signs by now.
Also, what happened to his deep ball? He used to be able to throw a nice deep pass but this season has been awful (minus that one pass to Moss).
He is pretty far down on the list of problems on this team…but I do think he is now on the list of problems.
I’m not sure I’d put Sellers or Landry above replacement. They’re solid performers, but too many mistakes too often. I think if Landry were allowed to play SS, he’d be a much better fit.
I also question Rogers as an above average fit. His first half of last year was that, but since the injury, I haven’t seen it. This year, his technique is terrible (first case – the TD he gave up in the Bucs game).
And while I appreciate the job Daniels does anchoring LDE against the run and helping Blache’s D, he is no threat to rush the passer any more. I swear the drop-off from him to Jarmon doesn’t appear that great, and Jarmon is still raw. Daniels probably is a below replacement candidate (and really, I love how he fits into Blache’s system).
That makes my list 9 above, 13 average, and 10 below. Seems more in line with how this team is performing.
Football outsiders runs metrics that evaulate several positions. In the Redskins case, Camble is playing at a similar level to the average NFL QB, Randle El is the only receiver playing above the average reciever, Moss is below average and the other receivers are well below average. The O Line is 18th in average yards per carry (and 10th in 3rd down success) but 25th in sack prevention rate. On defense the biggest weakness is throwing to slot receivers and tight ends and they’re a little above average on stopping the run. It’s early so opponent strength isn’t fully accounted for, but that mostly fits with what I’ve seen (I think the O-line is performing worse and the D-line is mostly not living up to the resources invested).
I don’t understand the Landry thing. Statistically, in 2 years as a starter, he’s a notch below Ohalete. If that’s not replaceable, I don’t know what is.
I know I’ve said this before, but Landry has been getting by for too long on his draft status. When I watch the truly premier safeties in the league, it’s obvious how far Landry is from being elite — or even above average for that matter.
Rich, I guess I’m an even more apologetic Campbell apologist than you are. I think Jason is league average, and in addition to the seven teams you mentioned — Detroit, Tampa, Rams, 49ers, Browns, Bills, Raiders — I think he is pretty clearly a step above the QBs for Miami (Chad Henne? Really?), Tennessee (Kerry Collins can’t do a thing anymore), and Carolina (Delhomme plays behind an all-world O-line and has a top-5 WR, and he’s still erratic/crappy behind center).
So that’s a good 10 teams he would improve, and I’d also argue that JC is *not clearly worse* than several other starters –Schaub in Houston, Garrard in Jacksonville, Cassel in KC, Orton in Denver, Sanchez for the Jets (sure, young Mark has looked promising so far, but their defense has been winning those games — his numbers are actually pretty weak).
I guess what I’m trying to say is I’d put Jason at somewhere around the 15-17th best starter in the league, at or around replacement level. JC’s numbers in traditional stats like QB rating (ranked 16th) and Yards/Attempt (11th), and ‘advanced’ metrics like Football Oustiders’ DVOA (20th among current starters) basically confirm this.
On the whole, though, I guess Campbell is in a pretty sad place when his most devoted defenders are making grand efforts simply to convince people that he is “average.” I do think that’s true, and that he is good enough to win in the right situation, but it’s also all to clear that this is not the right situation. And he’s not good enough to win games on his own. I really do wish the front office had emphasized the O-Line a bit more in the past few years, and given JC a better fighting chance, and I definitely don’t see Todd or Colt taking us anywhere we haven’t been, but I probably won’t shed too many tears if we’ve got a brand new Q next seasont
I respect your work but I have to disagree about your ratings. Based on what they are today, not their rep or what they used to be, the only guys who are truly above replacement level on this team are Samuels, Cooley, Haynesworth, Fletcher and Smith. That’s it — the entire list. Orakpo and Landry could well get there, but they aren’t yet.
But it’s even worse because Samuels and Fletcher are clearly heading towards the end of their careers, while Haynesworth will always be basically a part-time player and Smith is a punter. The way I see it, the only player on this team who just about every other team in the league would want is Cooley.
I don’t know enough to make comparisons to other teams, but I doubt that there are too many others who only have one really good young player. One. The Redskins have to be one of the least talented teams in the NFL. Thanks Dan and Vinny.
Using your “replacement” analysis, Landry, Hall, and Rogers are not playing at replacement level. Hall played that way in the 2nd half of last season, but has not this season. Rogers…I’ve seen nothing to justify him being better than average, if even that.
Call a spade a spade…I’m just tired of seeing teams chew up the Redskins on pass plays. I know much of the problem is lack of pass rush, but holy cow we get burned more than a short circuited iron through the air.