Bold Predictions Redskins vs. Eagles

Let’s first dispense with this “on any given Sunday” stuff. It is true that any NFL team is capable of beating any other NFL team “on any given Sunday”.

A wounded Eagles team could win against the rolling Washington Redskins on Sunday. I could also have dinner with the Pope next Friday night. Democrats and Republicans in Washington could put partisan politics aside for the good of the country. Len Pasquarelli, in theory, could write an article that takes a fair and balanced view of the Redskins.

The chances of the Redskins dropping this one are somewhere in between me breaking bread in the Vatican (what would I wear?) and Nancy Pelosi and Bill Frist leading a group hug on the steps of the Capitol.

OK, all kidding aside, there is a way that the Redskins could lose this game. It could be the Oakland game again. The Redskins get a quick, easy score in the early going and expect the Eagles to quit after such a punch in the mouth. They let the Eagles hang around and all of a sudden they look up and David Akers is kicking a 42-yard field goal as time runs out to beat them.

Given all of that, if these teams played this game 10 times the Redskins would win nine of them. I’ll take the 90% chance.

Still, folks out there in Redskins Nation are finding reasons to be nervous. Some out there are petrified that the Skins won’t win—make that can’t win—because they have never, no, not ever, never swept the Eagles and Cowboys in the same season. While I’m not exactly sure what the battles among Sonny Jurgensen, Norm Snead and Don Meredith back in the ‘60’s have to do with anything, here’s one reassuring fact:

The Redskins have swept the Eagles 20 times since 1936.

Again, what Eddie LeBaron vs. Norv Van Brocklin duels in the snow at Franklin Field and Griffith Stadium has to do with anything, I’m not sure. But perhaps this will offer some comfort to those who believe that such things have relevance.

I’ve also heard that the Eagles are well coached and will give you a battle. If they’re so well coached, why is it that the Eagles have racked up more than 100 yards in penalties in each of their last three games and have been flagged for 90 or more penalty yards in five of their last seven games. (Last season, on their way to the Super Bowl, the Eagles had just one 100-yard penalty game and two 90-yard games.) And I didn’t see much fight in them the last time they were on Monday night football. I think the Seahawks just returned another interception for a touchdown.

Certainly, one stat and one game don’t tell the whole story. For the sake of the argument, I’ll concede that Philly is well coached and will put up a fight. It won’t matter because they have no weapons. The Eagles are taking a knife into a gunfight. With Mike McMahon at quarterback, Ryan Moats at running back and nobody at wide receiver they aren’t going to be able to move the ball against the Redskins defense. Despite the urging of Andy Reid and company, this bunch won’t be able to put up double-digit points if they can score at all.

(On a side note here, the Eagles are quite proud of being about $12 million under the 2005 salary cap. When you’re winning, that’s smart cap management. When you’re losing such practices expose a lack of depth. Twelve million can buy a lot of backup offensive linemen, perhaps another quality receiver or two. Instead of putting the money on the field, owner Robert Lurie has chosen to put it in his pocket)

In terms of yards allowed, the Eagles are 27th in the league and that is the healthy side of the ball for them. Last year all four members of their secondary went to the Pro Bowl; none will be making a return trip. They may be good enough to take away Santana Moss or Chris Cooley or Clinton Portis. But if they stop one, the other two will kill them. Who knows, Taylor Jacobs might even come up with a big catch. Washington will get a couple of takeaways as well and all of this will add up to four or five touchdowns scored.

Don’t worry, you'll be happy.

Redskins 31, Eagles 3

Come On In The Water's Warm

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net
The Redskins pool has not had many swimmers take a dip in its Burgundy and Gold colored waters this year. That is, until lately. Now all sorts of folks are diving in, many of them head first.

Articles detailing how and why the Redskins will not only make the playoffs but make some noise when they get there are popping up like dandelions on your lawn in the spring. This one comes from Adam Schein on FoxSports.com:

Now the Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and a game away from making the tournament.

And a game away from being a team nobody wants to face in the postseason.
......................
The current formula is too strong; a game changing defense, fantastic coaching, a strong running attack, and a super confident bunch.

A formula made for success in the playoffs.

And to think I criticized Joe Theisman for drinking the Redskins Kool-Aid in the preseason, talking about Washington as a Super Bowl team.

Shame on me. Hail to the Redskins.

And then there's this one, Jason Whitlock's 10 NFL Truths column on ESPN.com:

8. Of all the teams in the NFC, the Washington Redskins are the only team capable of winning the Super Bowl.

After being down on Joe Gibbs early in the season, I have to credit him for getting things together. If the Skins knock off the Eagles, they will enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league -- hotter than the streaking Patriots, also winners of four straight.
..............................
7. OK, while I'm on the subject, let me rank the NFC Super Bowl hopefuls.

1. Redskins: Outstanding defense and just enough offense to beat any team in the league.

There are more out there and there will be more in the coming days. No doubt your local columnist is penning a Redskins lovefest article at this moment. The pool is getting quite crowded.

We would like to welcome them and tell them to come on in, the water's warm. Some of us have had such a feeling that this could be a special season for the Redskins quite some time ago.

Back on October 26 when the Redskins were 4-2, before the downs of the rout in the Meadowlands and the agonizing three-game skid, before the ups of the Sunday night win over Philly and the dual thrashings the Redskins delivered to Dallas and the Giants, a piece called "Why Not the Redskins" appeared in this space.

Do the Redskins have “it”? Before the season started, even those with the burgundy and gold glasses permanently perched on their noses would have been hard pressed to make a case for the Redskins, 6-10 in 2004, going to the Super Bowl XL. In September, they were a year or two away at best, primarily because the offense was a mess and the Eagles were the dominant force in the division. Saying that they had an outside shot at a wild-card playoff spot was considered to be a bold statement, anything beyond that was a mix of wishful thinking, fantasy, and lunacy.

Of course, similar things were said of the Carolina Panthers in early 2003. And the 2001 Patriots, the 2000 Ravens and the 1999 Rams and Titans had the same slim to none chance of making it to the title game as the Redskins were given in August. Somewhere along the line, however, they all got “it”. At some point during the season, the players started to seriously think, why not us?

The article went on to list some of the elements that, if they held up, could make the Redskins a dangerous team come playoff time, elements such as Brunell's solid quarterback play, balance, the presence of playmakers on both sides of the ball and, most importantly, a coach who has been there before, with three pieces of hardware in the lobby of Redskins Park to prove it.

Through the ups and downs of the past two months, those elements have remained in place.

The point here is not to brag about possessing some great insight or claim to be some sort of guru with powers of premonition. The fact is that the team that Whitlock and Schein and everyone else is raving about now was there two months ago. None of them, however, bothered to take the time to look at the team, to learn about the character of the players, to examine the possibilities that the team had. Instead, they continued to rag on Dan Snyder, who hasn't played a single down for the team this year. They looked at Joe Gibbs and forgot about three Lombardi's and went straight to the Geritol and Social Security jokes.

Well, better late than never. Come on, everyone and jump in. Just one thing; Lenny, Peter, if you do join the pool party, just leave your shirts on.

The Matrix

NFL.com made a quite useful chart that showed what the playoff seeds will under all possible combinations of results in this weekend’s games with playoff implications. There are five such games and you see them listed in the left half of the chart. Then, going down each column the possible combinations of winners are listed. On the right, there is the playoff seeding that will emerge from those results.

This version of the chart is sorted into the four possible scenarios for the Redskins. In the green section, the Redskins are the division champs (Redskins and Raiders win). In the yellow there are the “win and in” combinations where Washington is a Wild Card (Redskins and Giants win). The orange represents the “back in” sets of circumstances (Eagles and Rams win) and the white is the unthinkable where the Redskins go home (Eagles and Cowboys win).


(if this is a bit small for you to read--sorry, that's as large as blogger will let me post it--you can go here to get the original table)

The top two seeds, Seattle and Chicago, have first-round byes. The #3 seed will host the #6 seed and the #4 hosts the #5. As you can see, most of the scenarios with the Redskins winning the division title have the Giants coming to FedEx Field, although the one with all of the favorites except the Giants winning, the one listed first, has Carolina coming to Washington. A Wild Card Redskins team almost certainly goes to Tampa Bay as long as the Bucs beat the Saints; otherwise a trip to the Meadowlands is likely in the offing.

Mt. Arrington Erupts

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Just when you thought it was safe, Mt. Arrington erupts again. A couple of months after he finally got off the bench and onto the field, Arrington is at the center of the storm once again. Last time, it was not all his doing as it was the coaches who decided that he should ride the pine. This time, however, the eruption was of Arrington’s own making, created by his own words.

In an article by David Elfin in the Washington Times, Arrington says that this is likely to be his last season in Washington.

He says he would be cut even if he hadn't missed most of last season because of injuries -- injuries that lingered and made him a spare part for much of the first half of this season.

"Obviously, using me sparingly or not at all is a very clear message," says Arrington, who did not play despite suiting up for an Oct. 9 loss to the Denver Broncos. "I'm not wanted here. I believe in my heart that the Redskins faithful love me as Ravens fans love Ray Lewis or Packers fans love Brett Favre. Some individuals hate it that there are more of my jerseys in the stands than anyone else's."

Arrington said that his imminent departure had to do with a laundry list of issues including the dispute over $6.5 million in a contract extension he signed in 2003 and his attitude towards the game.

Arrington says his refusal to give his entire life to football also hurt his standing with coaches. "Causing a fumble to win a game or getting an interception to change a season, that's not the extent of my life," he says. "It never has been. I always see myself as a person first. Maybe coaches get upset that I don't take myself or this game too seriously and they do. Maybe they get upset because I see it as a game and nothing more than a game."

Well, LaVar, when you get paid tens of millions of dollars to play that game, others are entitled to expect that you take it seriously.

Certainly Joe Gibbs does. After practice on Wednesday he refused to comment on the story, saying that he’d just heard about it. He did say that he didn’t even want to think about the situation:

“Right now, for anyone in this organization – or, I would hope, in the entire town – to be focused on anything but Philadelphia is ridiculous. We’re getting ready to play the most important game that a lot of our players have played – in a place where it’s extremely tough to play and in a place where [the home team] just took the Giants into overtime. If we lose the game, we aren’t going anywhere, so my mindset is on one thing: Philadelphia. I’m not thinking about anything else but that.”

This was not like the incident this past April when two reporters stumbled across Arrington in the halls at Redskins Park and, facing another surgery on his knee, he took some emotional shots at the organization. It wasn’t a case where some reporter stuck a microphone in Arrington’s face as he was coming off the practice field or in the locker room after a tough loss. The interview that was the basis for the article took place at Arrington’s house near Annapolis. Either Arrington called up Elfin invited him to come up and talk or Elfin asked Arrington if he could drop by.

In either case, Arrington knew exactly what he was doing. That is what makes this particularly galling.

According to my colleague John Keim, Arrington went to Gibbs with the old “misinterpreted” line. If you believe that you probably flew in Santa sleigh last week. There is no reporter who covers the Redskins who is more respected than David Elfin. He is as good as they come; there’s no doubt that he has everything on tape and that he and his editors made sure that what he wrote fairly and accurately represented what he said.

The Redskins would have to take a net cap hit of some $7 million to cut Arrington. There seems to be little doubt that they will do so. It looks like good riddance.

Through everything that has gone on with Arrington, I’ve always had respect for him as a stand-up guy who often wore his emotions on his sleeve. That has changed. It’s hard to have much respect for a guy who chooses to play games off the field while there are still some very important ones happening on the field.

Looking for meaning

Looking for meaning
During a TV interview following the Redskins’ win over the Giants, Gregg Williams was informed that the Cowboys had come back to win their game against Carolina. That meant that the Redskins wouldn’t be able to have a playoff spot wrapped up until next week.

“I like the fact that we have to win next week,” said Williams. “I think that’s good for this football team. I don’t think we’ve accomplished nearly enough to be able to think that we can take a week off.”

You have to like that point of view and it makes perfect sense. Coaches are always looking for the extra edge to motivate their players and certainly the opportunity to keep playing and keep those paychecks coming in is as good and as practical as any incentive. If the Redskins had clinched this week, there is a chance that they would lose focus and intensity.

Next weekend’s schedule sets up perfectly from the perspective of Williams and, presumably, the rest of the coaching staff. There is no way that the game on Sunday at 4:15 will be rendered meaningless for the Redskins. While a Dallas loss would clinch a playoff spot for the Redskins regardless of the outcome of the game in Philadelphia, that game doesn’t kick off until 8:30 PM on Sunday. If that doesn’t keep the team focused on winning their game, nothing will.

The playoff seed possibilities are narrowing down for the Redskins. If they go 10-6 and win the NFC East, they will be the four seed. Seattle and Chicago have locked up #1 and #2 respectively. The winner of the NFC South will either have 11 wins or it will be Tampa Bay at 10-6 and the Bucs would get the higher seed due to their win over the Redskins.

If the Redskins win on Sunday to earn their playoff spot, they will be the five seed if Carolina loses at Atlanta and they will be the six seed if the Panthers win. If they manage to back in despite a loss on Sunday, they will be the six seed.

If Washington wins the division it will host either the Giants, Panthers, or Bucs. A Wild Card berth will earn a trip to one of those three teams.

Finishing up in style

In his first tenure here, Joe Gibbs’ teams were an impressive 8-3 in the 16th game of the season. On top of that, they never suffered a loss in the final game of the regular season that cost them a playoff spot. In 1991 they had wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs, so their loss to the Eagles was merely an exhibition. In 1987 the Redskins had been eliminated the previous week, so all their overtime loss to Cincinnati didn’t matter.

Only in 1992 did a final-game loss have playoff implications. Facing a win and in, lose and need help scenario going into a Saturday afternoon game against the Raiders, the Redskins came up short, losing 21-20. Fortunately, they got the help they needed the next day as the Packers lost and the Redskins were able to back in.

Big Blew

The New York writers didn’t take out the long knives on the Giants after the game nearly as bad as the press in Texas went after the Cowboys after their loss in Washington. Still, they don’t take losing lightly in the Big Apple. Here are a few tidbits from a column by Steve Serby in the New York Post.

This was the day the Giants should have made a loud statement - to the Redskins, to the 90,000 fans that shouted them down and cursed them, to all the other NFC teams with Super Bowl dreams. They were as quiet as church mice, and just as big, instead.

Little Blue shrunk to the occasion.

Big players play big in big games, and Big Blue was nowhere to be found.

Blue Christmas.Better yet,

Blew Christmas.

. . .

In the old days, you could always count on pride and toughness from the Giants defense. LT steaming around the corner against Joe Jacoby, with Leonard Marshall creating his own havoc on the opposite side. Harry Carson and John Riggins smashing mouths. Jim Burt nose-to-nose with the Hogs.

Little Blue yesterday.

"They just basically threw the ball up and had some fun with it," Michael Strahan said.They threw a roadblock in front of sackless Strahan and Osi Umenyiora.

So many fingers of blame to point, so little time:

Game Blog Giants at Redskins

First Quarter
If the first series is any indication, the Giants will be throwing on early downs to give Eli Manning some time to throw. It almost worked, but Plaxico Burress dropped his first-down bomb.

Somebody on the Redskins must have tipped the referees off about defensive holding on their running plays. Dallas got called for it twice last week and now there is another one in the early going today against the Giants. I don’t recall it being called up until then.

Clinton Portis is going to pop one today. He’s come close a couple of times already on the first offensive series. All he needs to do is make one guy miss and he’ll be off to the races.

Slick and slippery. That’s what Santana Moss was on that little bubble screen that he took to the house. Derrick Dockery did a good job of getting downfield out in front of Moss and the defensive back had absolutely zero chance of getting around him to try to make the tackle.

As one person up here noted, a 7:08 drive with a lot of running is just what you want in Christmas Eve. It would be great to be down in the victorious locker room by 4 PM.

New York does seem to have the Washington defense a bit off balance as they are throwing on first and 10 and running on second and long. The strategy is keeping Manning in the pocket with time to throw and giving Tiki Barber some running room. When they had to pass on third and four, the ball got batted in the air by Phillip Daniels. Still, the drive netted the Giants a field goal.

That was the worst pass Brunell has thrown all year, by far. Perhaps he was out of synch with Thrash, the intended receiver, but it looked like he just didn’t see Chase Blackburn, who got one of the easiest touchdowns a defender will ever get.

It’s not hard to see why Antonio Brown isn’t getting any time at receiver despite his speed. He has no moves at all. If he stops going straight ahead or does any more than a full-speed veer, he’s dead.
I was going to type that the Redskins are setting up a play-action bomb by running on every first down, but I didn’t. I could go back in the chronicle here and do so, but it wouldn’t be right. Good adjustment by Moss on Brunell’s underthrown ball. He’s showing that he’s the complete package as a receiver, not just a speed demon.
 
Second Quarter
Portis was very, very close to breaking it on his first carry of the second quarter. He was just off balance enough when a Giant defender brushed him to get knocked out off bounds. It’s coming, I tell you.
Ade Jimoh is an animal on special teams. As the gunner, he had a Giants trying to both hold and clip him, but Jimoh wouldn’t have any of it. He got to Chad Morton as soon as he caught the punt and made a textbook open field tackle.

It is indeed the season for giving. Manning returned Brunell’s gift-wrapped interception favor with one to Lamar Marshall that should have had a bow on it. Jeremy Shockey has no idea where the ball was, apparently not believing that Eli had thrown it right between the “9” and the “8” on Marshall’s jersey. Happy Holidays, indeed!

The Giants don’t know what hit them on Portis’ TD toss to Cooley. That’s the best spot on the field to try that one from; when they ran it in St. Louis it was near midfield and you don’t expect a running back to have the skills to complete that one. This was just an easy toss to a wide-open Cooley. That’s going to set the New York defenders back on their heels a bit on the toss sweep from here on out.

It’s unusual to see the Redskins playing as soft as they are on this two-minute drive by the Giants. They’re in field goal range thanks to a questionable personal foul call on Ryan Clark and the rush really hasn’t come close to Manning and the coverage has still been rather soft.

New York gets a lucky break to get back into it. Burress should be ashamed of himself for being able to do nothing more than bat Manning’s pass into the air and Toomer should be commended for great concentration in making the catch in the end zone. It doesn’t look like there’s enough to overturn, although it’s very close.

Still, you have to like a 21-17 lead at the half. The Giants still don’t have an answer for the Redskins’ offense.

Third Quarter

That was not the series that the Redskins needed to respond to the Giants’ score near halftime. An OK run, a dropped pass, and a sack, that’s not the way to grab the momentum back. The Giants not only get the ball back, they have decent field position at their own 34.

Clutch special teams play by the Redskins with the blocked chip-shot field goal attempt. For the Giants to score on that drive would have put momentum back on the Giants’ side.

Patrick Ramsey came into the game the last time the Redskins played the Giants, too. The circumstances were quite different as New York had the game well in hand at that point. We’ll see how much Ramsey has learned in his 14 games on the bench.

Clinton Portis—or, more accurately, the offensive line—needs to step it up if the Redskins are going to stay in control. A solid running game is any quarterback’s best friend, especially a rusty one.
It really is too bad that Santana Moss is just a speedster who really isn’t much of a receiver. After bailing out Brunell on an underthrow earlier, he made a great adjustment on Ramsey’s pass and took it to the house again.

A very smooth, cool Manning going to Shockey to convert a third and nine. There were Redskins jumping all around and he calmly found  lane to throw to for a big first down.

This already has been a higher-scoring game than many thought at 28-20 and it’s not even the end of the third quarter yet. Manning is hanging tough.
 
Fourth Quarter
 
I told you that Portis was going to break one. Although 19 yards isn’t exactly coast to coast, he could have gone for 80. Besides, as it gives them a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, it may have been the most important 19 yards of the season for Portis and the Redskins.
 
I doubt that the Giants will be abandoning the run at this point. They have little hope of Manning drops back on every play. They need two touchdowns and Barber is their best offensive weapon and their best chance of getting the scores.
 
That may have been a little early to go for it on fourth down, especially with six yards to go and over ten minutes to play. A field goal would avoid the necessity for a two-point conversion.
 
After getting played to a standoff for most of three quarters, the Washington offensive line is now beginning to dominate the players in front of them. They’re blowing them back off the line and Betts and Portis are running hard into the holes.
 
One holding call and one possible PI that wasn’t called may have wrapped this one up for the Redskins. The hold brought back a New York TD and the non-call let stand a fourth-down incompletion. I certainly don’t want to imply that interference should have been called on Shawn Springs, just that I’ve seen it called on similar plays.
 
Who is the best team in the NFC now? You could make a case that the Redskins are playing better than anyone now and they have improved more than anyone over the past month. They hung 35 on the Giants, a team that shut them out less than two months ago. That’s all you need for a yardstick to tell how well this group is playing right now.
 
Hail to the Redskins.

Postscript

It’s quite a challenge to get a Redskin to actually acknowledge that he accomplished something out on the field. In the interview room I tried to get Santana Moss to say something about being a big-time player making big plays in a big time game. He talked about hard work and credited Clinton Portis for making the safeties cheat to help with the run. Renaldo Wynn’s block wasn’t a great individual effort, according to Wynn, it was a great scheme that Danny Smith called at the right time.

Clinton Portis did boast—about his passing ability. His success on the ground was due to Moss keeping the defense back on its heels, the offensive line, and great play calling.

As long as that attitude prevails, nobody is going to want to play this team in the playoffs should they get there.

Bold Predictions: Talkin' Tiki

Speaking of an upcoming Super Bowl, iconoclastic Dallas running back Duane Thomas once said, “If it’s the biggest game of all time, why are they going to play another one next year?”

A similar question could be asked this week. If last week’s game against Dallas was the biggest ever at FedEx Field, what do you call the one against the Giants this Saturday?

It’s not the elimination game that we saw last week with the loser being virtually out of the realistic playoff picture. The Redskins could lose and still qualify for the playoffs with a win the next week in Philadelphia with some help that is not too far-fetched (basically, having Dallas, Atlanta, and Minnesota do no better than split their final two games). Even if the Giants lose, they will still be in control of their own destiny as a win the next week in Oakland would clinch the NFC East for them regardless of the outcome on Saturday.  

Despite the absence of desperation, there is a lot at stake here. The Redskins have pulled themselves up from a 5-6 mark at the beginning of December to having their playoff destiny in their own hands and they don’t want to relinquish their grip on the postseason spot and the potential for a division title. New York would like to clinch the division early and aim towards a possible first-round bye.

And then there’s that little matter of 36-0. The Redskins simply can’t afford to let a statement like that stand, especially since it’s likely that their opponents in the first round of the playoffs would be none other than the New York Giants.

One the defensive side, it’s pretty simple—don’t let Tiki Barber beat you. Eli Manning was over hyped in the beginning of the year but now that’s fading because his performance is. In three December games, Manning’s quarterback rating is a dismal 54. He is, however, managing the games well; the Giants are 3-0 in those games.

Managing the game isn’t too hard when that consists of handing the ball off to Barber. The 30-year-old back has averaged 150 yards a game in December and has gone over 100 yards rushing in each of his last five games. Everyone remembers his performance against the Redskins in October when he rushed for 206 and set the tone for the rout by tearing off a 57-yard run on New York’s first play. Don’t forget that he racked up those yards in about three quarters of work. Like Kobie Bryant the other night, he put up his number and declined to pile it on in the late going with the game well in hand, preferring to rest to fight another day.

One thing that the Redskins have in their favor is that Barber is a better running on turf than he is on grass. He averaged 5.4 yards a carry on the fake stuff and just 3.8 a pop on real grass. There is a chance that both of their starting offensive tackles will miss the game, but neither played last week and that bothered Barber so much that he only ran for 220 yards against the Chiefs. The Redskins can give Tiki his 100, but every yard over that will diminish the Redskins’ chances.

The Giants will have a similar goal; they need to stop Clinton Portis. The Redskins’ three-game winning streak has coincided with a return to an emphasis on the ground game.

As Mark Brunell’s pass attempts have gone down, his quarterback rating has gone up. Other than the ugly 34 caused by the three interceptions in Arizona, he hasn’t been below a 96.8 rating in the past four games. Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels will make it their personal challenges to keep Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora off of Brunell’s back, something they failed to do last time around.

It’s difficult to imagine the Redskins posting a second easy win in a row, just as it’s hard to believe that the Giants will dominate to anywhere near the extent they did last time. The Giants are the slightly better team. They have won two more games than Washington against a similar schedule. The Redskins have the home field. The noise helped force about a half dozen false starts by Dallas last week and the crowd could have come up with a few more had the game been competitive in the second half.

And the Giants just aren’t a good road team. Their only wins away from the Meadowlands (their game against the Saints in Giants Stadium is officially a “road” game) have been in San Francisco and Philly. They haven’t been successful in an atmosphere like they will encounter in FedEx Field all year.

Barber will get his yards and New York will put up some points, about half of what they put up in the Meadowlands. Manning will throw for a touchdown or two but he’ll also toss up a couple of interceptions. Brunell will get knocked around some but Portis will be effective enough to keep his pass attempts around 20. The Redskins will score midway through the fourth quarter to take the lead, but the Giants will battle back. A couple of false starts will push back a field goal attempt and the Redskins will survive.

Redskins 20, Giants 17

Redskins Playing Football Gibbs' Way

As I was watching the game on Tivo the other night, that play reminded me of something I’d seen a long time ago. So, tonight I pulled out my bootleg DVD copy of the 1982 NFC championship game. On the Redskins first offensive play, John Riggins took a handoff and headed towards a similar moving wall. Riggo slammed into the mass of humanity and picked up a gain of six. That also set the tone for the physical domination that the Redskins would enjoy all day long.

What this says is that towards the end of his second season, this is finally a Joe Gibbs team. He started as an offensive line coach and, to him, that’s where offense begins. When most teams design a pass play the emphasis is on pass patterns and timing; for Gibbs, it’s how to protect the quarterback. That’s when passing is necessary, of course. He would rather run the ball and when Jansen, Dockery, Thomas, Rabach, Samuels and, now, Ray Brown are firing out and pushing the other team back, it’s not hard to have a heavy dose of that in the game plan.

A month ago, the Redskins were on pace to give up as many sacks this season as they did in 2003, when Steve Spurrier’s pass protection schemes drew so much criticism. You don’t hear that talk any more after three straight games that were essentially sack-free. The one sack against the Redskins’ record came on that safety in St. Louis, a miscue between Portis and Mark Brunell more than a leak in the O-line.

Gibbs has been back for a while now. It has taken almost two seasons for his teams to catch up with him. Now, to the rest of  the NFL, Gibbs is ba-ack.

An Amazing Stat

An Amazing Stat

The Redskins are coming into a situation identical to one following a Monday night game. They will have a short week to prepare as played on Sunday and the Giants will have the normal full week having played on Saturday.

Joe Gibbs has mentioned that more than a couple of times, starting minutes after the Dallas game. However, there is scant evidence that this is anything that Gibbs should worry about. Keeping in mind that this situation is similar to a Monday night game setup, with Gibbs’ team on short rest and preparation compared to the opponent, chew on this stat:

On games following Monday night football, Joe Gibbs is 20-3.

That’s just amazing. He’s won coming off of the short week 87% of the time, and the statistical sample covers just less than a season and a half and it’s over a period of 11 seasons (Washington didn’t play on MNF in either of Gibbs’ first two seasons). That, my friends, is a trend.

I’ve heard a lot about the disadvantage of teams playing on a short week, so assume that the average record of teams coming off of MNF is a little under .500. That means that Gibbs’ advantage over the field is 400 percentage points. That’s money.

It was my impulse to say that Gibbs obviously had a much better idea as to how to prepare his team on a short week than other coaches did. But wait, his opponents were always coming off of a regular week. So he did better in what is commonly a disadvantageous situation. He was the one-legged man who won the butt-kicking competition 20 out of 23 times.

Quick Thrill or the Start of Something Big?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at rtandler@comcast.net

Actually, it looks better when it's served over Tuna:

Right now, still in the glow of spending three hours plus
of being the Dallas Cowboys' daddy, it is a great win. And there is not a chance
it will ever be anything less than that. It was the Cowboys, it was Parcells, it
was for playoff life, it was at FedEx. That will never change.

As is almost always the case, however, we will need some
perspective to see just how this one stacks up in Redskins history against other
big regular-season games. Should the Redskins go to the playoffs, the game's
importance will be magnified. If they advance, it will get bigger. If the
Redskins use a playoff run this year as a springboard to elite status in the
NFL, it will become one of those legendary games that everyone remembers and
something like a quarter of a million people will eventually swear they saw in
person.

The Coverage

One of the best parts of a game like this one is reading
the morning papers and the glowing coverage of the local writers. Truth be told,
many of them are lifelong Redskins fans (I won’t name names). But, to a man
they would rather cover a winning team than a losing one and they’d rather be
covering playoff games than starting to write about offseason moves while the
college bowl season is barely underway.

What can be more fun, though, is to read the perspective
from the other side. Nobody can quite kick the Dallas Cowboys when they are down
than the writers and columnists who know them the best. Here are a couple of fun
ones I came across. First, from Jim Reeves of the Ft.
Worth Star-Telegram:

Considering what was at stake, it has to be the most devastating Cowboys' defeat of the
Parcells' era. After he spent last week telling us how much he liked these
players, they flat quit on him Sunday.

They soiled their britches

It is fair to wonder whether such a dismal failure in such a huge game will
eventually influence Parcells' decision to keep coaching beyond this season.

---

After what we saw Sunday, [the playoffs] might be little more than a pipe dream. A
Michael Irvin under-the-car-seat pipe dream.

---

The offensive line should have swapped uniforms with the Redskins cheerleaders.
When Torrin Tucker and company weren't being flagged for false starts and
holding, they were waving pompoms at the Redskins' defenders as they rushed by.

And from Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News:

Parcells likes his team less today, because the Cowboys quit on him in a rivalry
showdown. When Terry Glenn wasn't pulling back on a crossing pattern (who
wants to get hit?), then Terence Newman was ducking on a tackle that resulted
in yet another Redskins touchdown (who wants to hit?).

The punter shanked, the field-goal kicker missed and nearly everyone on the
offensive line jumped once. Asked about the false starts afterward, Parcells
shrugged and said, "Hey, it's always the same guys."

Centers, guards, tackles. Those same guys.

Parcells glared so much at the offenders that there was concern his face would freeze
that way. And then there was the reigning NFC offensive player of the week:
Had Drew Bledsoe held the ball a little longer, Fox would have had to cut away
for commercial breaks.

That "thump-thump" you just heard was the sound of Cowboys getting thrown under the
bus.

It was not quite so enjoyable watching the highlights on ESPN. I'm

not as big a critic of the self-proclaimed "World Wide Leader" as some
are, but their coverage of the Redskins last night bordered on pathetic. On
"NFL Prime Time", Chris Berman and Tom Jackson were clearly stunned by
the Dallas loss. They said that the Redskins' ground-based game plan was
"Parcells-like".

Uh, excuse me guys, but Joe Gibbs won a Super Bowl with a ground-based
offense before Bill Parcells ever became an NFL coach. It was Gibbs being
"Gibbs-like".

And then on the Sports Center following the Sunday night game, the two
anchors brought it to an even lower level. As the shot of the Redskins' #53
intercepting a pass and returning it to set up a touchdown filled the screen,
the announcer said, "And then Marcus Williams picks off Bledsoe. .
."

It's not as though Marcus Washington is Warrick Holdman or another anonymous
player. He went to the Pro Bowl last year and he's probably going back again.
This past week he was named the Redskins Player of the Year by the Quarterback
Club. If you pay any attention at all to the Redskins, you know who he is.

But the "World Wide Leader" evidently doesn't pay much attention to
them. After showing the highlights and Bill Parcells' comments they showed the
Wild Card standings with the Redskins "out of nowhere" leading for the
second spot.

No, they didn't come out of nowhere. They have been steadily rising over the
past three weeks. They do have a Hall of Fame coach whose teams rallied to
playoffs spots in the past. They have a few pretty good football players. If you
want to remain the "World Wide Leader" you might want to start paying
some attention.

The Playoff Picture

One route to the playoffs is simple--win and in. If the Redskins win their
remaining two games against the Giants and Eagles, they are in the playoffs.
Should New York win its final game of the season against the Raiders in Oakland,
the Redskins would be a Wild Card. If the Giants lose, they will be the NFC East
champs.

There is still the outside possibility of the Redskins getting a first-round
bye (as first talked about
here last week) if they win the division. If the Panthers (Dallas, at
Atlanta) and Bears (at Green Bay, at Minnestoa) lose out but still manage to win
their divisions at 10-6 Redskins division winner would be the #2 seed behind
Seattle and they would be off the first week of the playoffs. The would also get
the second seed if the Bucs and Bears win their divisions at 10-6. The Redskins'
conference record, which would be 10-2, would be the key tiebreaker.

It's also possible that the Redskins could split their next two games--it
wouldn't matter which one the won and which one they lost--and still get in at
9-7. It would just take Dallas (at Carolina, St. Louis) and Atlanta (at Tampa
Bay, Carolina) and Minnesota (at Baltimore, Chicago) to lose one more
game.

That playoff berth could be like the present that is kind of behind the
Christmas tree and you don't find it until that night. The Redskins, Cowboys,
and Falcons all play on Saturday and, if things set up right, the Redskins could
clinch on Christmas night if the Ravens beat the Vikings.

Three and Out

The three biggest factors in Sunday’s game:

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Ball control—The Cowboys lead the NFL in average time of possession. If they have a considerable edge there on Sunday it will be very difficult for Washington to win. Defensively for the Redskins, preventing third down conversions will be critical. They allow them at a rate of 37%, about in the middle of the NFL pack. They’ll have to step up and improve this number, or at least put in an average performance. Against a Dallas team that is largely one-dimensional—Gregg Williams wasn’t at Redskins Park until 2 AM this week figuring out how to stop Julius Jones and Marion Barber. On offense, as was pointed out here earlier this week, Clinton Portis has to average the 4.4 yards a carry that Dallas has allowed this year.

Courage—Sometime in the third or early in the fourth quarter, sometime before it’s no-brainer go for it time, one of the teams will face a fourth and short on the far end of field goal range for its kicker. Gibbs or Parcells, perhaps both, will face a decision that could well determine the success of the season. It’s going to be a low-scoring game and chances to put up points will be few and far between. The coach with the courage to go for it will give his offense a second wind and perhaps a critical edge.

The Middle—Washington likely will have both of its starting defensive tackles in the lineup for the first time since October as Joe Salave’a and Cornelius Griffin are slated to start. If they can consistently get push against Dallas guard Marco Rivera and Larry Allen—no easy feat—they will open up the rest of the defense to blitz the pass and attack the run. On the other side, Casey Rabach has to control nose tackle La’Roi Glover, especially on passing downs. The shortest route to the quarterback is up the middle and if Glover is consistently winning his battle with Rabach, Mark Brunell will have defenders in his face before he can even set up to pass.

Bold Predictions, Part 2: Ground Game

The two teams have had very similar seasons. Of the 12 games they each have played so far, not counting the one against each other, nine have been against common opponents. The comparative results are muddled. The Redskins got bombed by the Giants, the Cowboys split with them, Washington beat Philly, Dallas swept the Eagles (second Redskins meetings with those two, of course, are pending). They both lost to the woeful Raiders and beat the woeful Cardinals and Niners. Denver won in Dallas and at home against Washington while Kansas City lost on the road to the Cowboys and beat the Redskins at Arrowhead. Washington edged the NFC’s top team, the Seahawks, at FedEx while Dallas lost a heartbreaker to them in Seattle.

On top of that, both teams have been living on the edge all year long. All but three of the Redskins’ games have been in doubt in the last two minutes of the game and the same can be said of all but three of the Cowboys’ contests this year.

Is there any reason to believe that Sunday’s game will be any different than 75% of the games that each team has played this year?

No. This one will be a tense, hard-hitting affair that will go down to the wire.

When the two teams last met, it was expected that Gregg Williams would call blitzes on Drew Bledsoe at least three out of every four plays. Williams crossed them up, calling very few blitzes and keeping his backs and linebackers in coverage. It was bend but don’t break approach and it was effective as Dallas put up just the 13 points. Any defensive coordinator will take that any day. Look for Williams to blitz more, but not a lot more. He’ll see if Phillip Daniels can beat tackle Torrin Tucker, a rookie who has been filling in for the injured Flozell Adams. If Daniels can generate some pass pressure, as he has been able to the past few games, look for flooded zones and two-deep coverage. If he can’t, Williams will bring some more heat, but will do so judiciously.

One way or another, the Dallas passing game will be limited. The Cowboys will find the going tough on the ground as well. Since the beginning of November only the Tomlinson-led Chargers have been able to muster more than 62 yards rushing in a game. Julius Jones is having a king-sized sophomore slump, failing to get 100 yards in a single game all year. He won’t on Sunday either. Rookie Marion Barber can sting you here and there and is a nice complimentary back, but he has nobody to compliment.

Gibbs will play this one close to the vest. Those who gnash their teeth at the “Clinton left, Clinton right, pass, punt, fight, fight, fight!” style of offense had better wear a mouth guard to prevent wear and tear on their dental assets. The lovely Redskins cheerleaders had better be on alert; plenty of Mark Brunell passes will be fired in their direction as the quarterback stays away from killer interceptions. You can get away with three picks against the Cardinals; you can’t against the Cowboys.

The key will be Portis and his offensive line. We haven’t heard any tell of Portis, in Riggo-like fashion, go to Gibbs and tell him “Give me the ball,” but the result has been the same. His top three games of the season in terms of carries have been in the past three weeks. The ground game was cranked up not only to beat the Rams and Cardinals, but also in anticipation of this coming game.

If Portis is getting more like five yards a pop and the Redskins are in third and short—or, better yet, rarely in third down at all—the Redskins will control the game and, if they avoid the killer mistake that has plagued them so often both this season and in the past seven years against Dallas, they will pull out the win.

The numbers say that Portis, who is averaging 4.3 a carry, should be able to hold up his end of the deal and run for about a buck and a quarter. It says here that after years of every bounce going Dallas’ way, the Redskins are due a few more or, at least, an equality of breaks.

That adds up to a Redskins win, one that will keep everyone on the edge of their seats until the final gun.

Redskins 16, Cowboys 14.

Bold Predictions Part 1: Myth Busting

Bold Predictions, Part 1: Myth Busting

There are a lot of myths floating around out there surrounding Sunday’s game. Since you can only break down a game if you’re looking at the facts, not at popular misconceptions, here are a few of those myths and where they fall apart:

Myth #1: The Cowboys dominated for the first 55 minutes the first time the two teams played.

The Facts: Dallas led just 3-0 after 30 minutes of play. At that time, they had gained 105 yards, 42 of them on their opening drive that resulted in a missed field goal. The Redskins had gained 84 yards. Certainly advantage Dallas, but nothing remotely resembling domination. Early in the third quarter, the statistical tide turned when the Cowboys scored on a trick play, the flea flicker with Bledsoe to Jones to Bledsoe to Glenn for a 70-yard touchdown. When the Redskins took possession with 5:58 to play following a Cowboy field goal to make it 13-0, Dallas had outgained the Redskins 282-178. A solid advantage, one that pretty well reflected the 13-0 score. That’s hardly anyone’s definition of domination, however, especially considering that a fourth of Dallas’ yards had come on one trick play.

Myth #2: The Redskins were lucky to win the last time the two teams played.

The Facts: Regardless of whatever supposed domination did or did not take place beforehand, I’m not exactly sure how you can say that the Brunell’s two touchdown passes to Moss were lucky or flukes or anything other than well-designed, well-executed football plays. The Redskins took advantage of the fact that safety Roy Williams isn’t very good in pass coverage. On its lone touchdown, Dallas took advantage of the fact that Sean Taylor likes to support against the run. Why to many the Redskins’ passes were somehow tainted and Dallas’ was just smart football I can’t figure out.

Myth #3: The Redskins won’t be able to run against the Dallas defense.

The Facts: The Cowboys went nuts in free agency and in the draft to try to shore up their defensive front seven. The conventional wisdom is that this was a wise investment and it may prove to be, but the results just aren’t showing this year. They are giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry. That’s a worse performance than all but four NFL teams. It’s worse than Arizona, worse than Chicago, worse than Tampa Bay, worse than San Francisco, all teams that Clinton Portis gained over 100 yards against. Yes he gained just 57 yards the last time the two teams played, but if you give me that as the over-under for this week I’ll bet the ranch on the over.

Myth #4: Parcells owns Gibbs

The Facts:  Parcells has a 13-7 advantage over Gibbs lifetime. That’s a pretty shaky definition of “ownership” if you ask me. Besides, what happened in the 1980’s is of dubious relevance today. The more relevant stat is 14-13, what Gibbs’ team beat Parcells’ team by in September.

None of the above should be interpreted as putting down the Cowboys. They are a good team and will be an extremely tough opponent on Sunday. But Dallas does not need to be over-hyped and Redskins fans don’t have to blow them up to point where they think that even staying on the field with them is an impossible task.

Tomorrow, the prediction.

Playoff Picture 12.13.05--First-Round Bye?

Other than the most important result, their own win in Arizona, not much went right for the Redskins this weekend in their hunt to make the playoffs. The three teams immediately in front of them in the NFC standings--Dallas, Minnesota, and Atlanta—all won.
 
The chances of Washington getting in with nine wins, as outlined here last week, are not gone but they became a considerably longer shot than they were before. Now Dallas, Minnesota, and Atlanta all need to lose two out of three to wind up with nine wins instead of two out of four. I’m sure that there is some statistical formula where you could work out the odds of decent teams going .500 in four games compared to the chances of them posting a .333 winning percentage in three games. Without Googling that formula, it’s safe to say that the odds are for the latter are considerably worse.
 
All was not lost for the Redskins, however. The losses by the Bears and the Panthers opened the door just slightly to a very tantalizing possibility—a first-round bye.
 
All scenarios with three games left are pretty complex, but this one isn’t all that hard to figure out. What has to happen first is for the Redskins to win out and for the Giants to stumble either this week when they host Kansas City or in the season finale in Oakland. That gives the Redskins the division championship at 10-6 based on what would be a better division record than Dallas and the Giants should either of those teams also finish at 10-6.
 
The other part, the help, is not likely to happen but it’s possible. Seattle has 11 wins so the NFC West winner is excluded from this discussion. The first thing that has to happen is that the winners of the South and North finish with no more than 10 wins. That means that Chicago, Tampa, and Carolina can win no more than one more game and Minnesota can win no more than two. You can look at their finishing schedules below and see what you think the chances of that happening are before you read on.
 
The edge that a 10-6 Redskins team would have would be its conference record. All 10 wins would be against NFC teams and none of the other potential division winners could have a better conference record. That would give them a week off should Carolina win the South at 10-6 regardless of who wins the North (at 10-6, of course).
 
If Tampa Bay wins the South at 10-6, Washington would get the bye only if Chicago won the North. Yes, Tampa Bay did beat the Redskins but that wouldn’t matter because they didn’t play the Bears and in a three-way tie, head to head only comes into play if one team beat both of the other teams. It would then go to conference record and that would be advantage, Washington.
 
The only combination that would have the Redskins playing in the first round of the playoffs would be if Tampa Bay won the South and Minnesota won the North. The Bucs beat both the Skins and the Vikings so that would hand them the #2 seed and Washington and Minnesota would host the Wild Card teams in the first round.

The chances of all of this happening are quite slim, starting with the chances of the Redskins finishing 10-6. But this if this weekend the Panthers, Bucs, and Bears all lose and the Redskins win, you’ll start hearing about this possibility elsewhere. You will have heard it here first.
 
One other scenario to be cleared up here is the question of how a 10-6 Redskins team could miss out on the playoffs. First, the Giants would have to win their other two games, giving them the division at 11-5. Then it’s a matter of whether or not two or more of the other contenders gets to 11 wins. The issue of the loss to Tampa Bay could also come into play should they and/or the Vikings finish in the tiebreaker pool.

The playoff contenders with their overall, conference, and division records and their remaining games.
 
1. Seattle: 11-2, 10-1, 6-0Schedule: @Titans, Colts, @ Packers2. Chicago: 9-4, 8-1, 4-0 Schedule: Falcons, @Packers, @Vikings3. New York: 9-4, 8-3, 4-1Schedule: Chiefs, @Redskins, @Raiders4. Tampa: 9-4, 7-3, 3-1Schedule: @Pats, Falcons, Saints5. Carolina: 9-4, 6-3, 2-2Schedule: @Saints, Cowboys, @Falcons6. Minnesota: 8-5, 7-4, 4-1Schedule: Steelers, @Ravens, Bears7. Dallas: 8-5, 6-3, 3-2Schedule: @Skins, @Panthers, Rams8. Atlanta: 7-5, 4-4, 1-2Schedule: Saints, @Bears, @Bucs, Panthers9. Washington: 7-6, 7-2, 2-1Schedule: Cowboys, Giants, @Eagles

Game Blog Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

Good punt by Frost; in that three-game losing streak he had a tendency to get off a weak one under such circumstances.

That was great timing for the first three and out of the game by the Cardinals, and they looked bad doing it. We’ll see if the commitment to the run shown on that first drive of the half pays dividends here. The possibility of Portis popping one through the line and going for a big play is pretty good here. I’ll will say it now, he’s been close a couple of times. Regardless of that, three first downs, no matter how they are obtained, probably clinches it for the Redskins.

Well, the Redskins had a first and five and couldn’t get a first down. Thanks to another good punt by Frost, the Cardinals will have a long way to travel. Still, with Warner and company able to eat up big chunks of yardage at once, it’s best to keep the off the field altogether.

The Cards did get some field position on that pass to Boldin, but good job to get them to punt. This time, for sure, a few first downs puts this one away.

How many times are they Cardinals going to be allowed to pick up five yards on first down on that little draw play?

We see the Taylor intimidation factor in full force there as Arrington shrinks like a schoolgirl as Taylor approaches in the open field.

Excellent play call by Gibbs to go with the pass when the run hasn’t been working the past two series. I think that the Cards have two timeouts left, so another first down will be needed to be able to run out the clock.

Who says Clinton Portis is just a scat back? He was dead and the Redskins were punting, but he kept churning and churning and got the yardage for the first.

At first glance, Antonio Brown has to get the game ball as the MVP as his return was the last score of the game. Portis, though, had a great game, and the defense, again, came up big.

Game Blog Third Quarter

Third Quarter

A fifteen-yard penalty before even taking the field for the second half? Did I mention that I hate games in Arizona?

I’m typing this prior to the replay review, so I’m assuming that it’s a TD as it looks like Portis got the ball over before stepping out, but here goes. That was the perfect drive for the Redskins to open the half to tie the game. They ran the ball, they went for it on fourth and two, they got a break with the facemask penalty, they burned off over seven and a half minutes. It’s been over half an hour of real time since the Redskins defense has been on the field, hopefully they’ll get after the Cardinals like they did in the beginning of the game.

Well, maybe not. Warner got too much time to throw on that seam route to the TE and then when they do get pressure, they break a tackle and get another big gainer. And then Boldin breaks Taylor tackle (he was responsible for the miss on the earlier play) to convert a third and eight. That one probably didn’t end up hurting much as they were well within field goal range.

There were two missed turnover opportunities on that drive. Chris Clemons had Warner’s arm but the QB managed to move the arm forward enough to get an incompletion and then Taylor missed a diving try for an interception on a ball that Marcus Washington tipped. The play for Taylor was tough but certainly makeable.

Were I a shady blogger, I would go back and type someplace that it has looked a couple of times like Antonio Brown was a shoestring tackle away from a long run on a kickoff return. I did think that but I didn’t type it, so I’m not going to revise my remarks as some in Washington do.
The kid’s got a set of wheels, no doubt about it.

I’ve seen less pushing called a force out than we saw on the Bouldin catch, but we’ll take it.

Game Blog Second Quarter

Second Quarter

Carlos Rogers pursues the run very well. It looked like J. J. Arrington had some running room on that pitch play, but Rogers closed in a hurry and made the tackle for a loss.

Very good responding drive by Warner and the Cardinals. They got some ground game going and protected Warner better, giving him time to find his guys Boldin and Fitz. The Redskins need a smart drive of their own in response to the Cardinals’ response. Maybe they’ll do better with the whole field to work with; they haven’t been doing too well getting it in Arizona territory.

So much for the more field theory. Not very impressive there, a short run, a dropped pass and another pass well short of the first down followed by a fumble. This offense is lacking anything remotely resembling rhythm.

Warrick Holdman finally makes a stat sheet appearance with a fumble recovery. They are starting to paint his number on a parking spot at Redskins Park as I type this, I’m sure.

Wow, Brunell is having his worst day of the year. That’s two Red Zone interceptions thrown to a spot with nobody in white in the vicinity. The first pick wasn’t his fault as it bounced off of Cooley, but the second two certainly were just horrid throws. That last one and a rare dumb play by Jon Jansen in picking up a personal foul for a late hit out of bounds (a bit touchy, IMO, but legit) results in a net swing of at least six points, maybe 10.

This certainly isn’t Brunell’s day. He was unable even to execute a simple spike of the ball to stop the clock and then when things went awry he couldn’t make a play out of it.
It’s hard to get a feel for this game because of all of the turnovers. It’s pretty even statistically; if they Skins can just hold on to the ball, they may be able to win going away. I think it’s time for heavy doses of Portis in the second half and let Brunell calm down and recover some confidence.

Game Blog First Quarter

I hate games in Arizona. Let me get that out of the way before kickoff.

Huh? What was the penalty on that first play? Can’t be sure if the sack counted or not or if the play would have stood if the Redskins had recovered the fumble.

It’s not quite like a game at FedEx, but you can hear a strong Redskins contingent at Sun Devil Stadium. A very audible cheer was heard after a stop for a loss by Griffin and after Sean Taylor jumped all over Warner’s pass to get an interception. You can even hear the “Coooooley!” cheer after the H-Back catches a pass.

Another turnover for a safety as Prioleau gets the defender’s triple play with the sack, strip, and fumble recovery. Taylor was in the backfield, too, so obviously it’s no holds barred on putting heat on Warner. If they don’t protect him better somebody’s going to get the grand slam today (Triple play plus returning the fumble for a TD).

I don’t know if it’s a record, but I can say that I’ve never seen an NFL game stat with five thrnovers on the first five possessions. The Skins need to cash this one in for six or it could be a long day. They need more production out of three possessions down there.

Did I mention that I hate games in Arizona?

Bold Predictions Redskins vs. Cardinals

I’ve been following the NFL since 1967 and I’ve never wanted anything that the Cardinals had, either in St. Louis or as Phoenix or Arizona. Until now, that is. Here is the artist’s rendition of their new stadium, which will finally open next season:



No, it’s not the retractable roof. I’m not real wild about those contraptions. Besides, it looks like when it’s open that the sun will shine on the field in disruptive patterns like you find at Texas Stadium.

The cool thing is what you see sticking out in front of it, the retractable field. Yes, a retractable field. From the brochure describing the stadium:

The first completely retractable field in North America, it will be positioned inside the stadium on game days to offer the preferred natural-grass playing surfact for football and outside the stadium for the remaining 350+ days of the year to receive sunlight and watering. The field tray will be powered by electric motors mounted on steel wheels rifing on tracks embedded in the concrete floor.

Now that’s cool. You don’t have to use fake grass and still have your semi-dome. It just goes to show you what you can do if someone backs up several dump trucks full of public money for you to build your stadium with. The brochure does note that the Cardinals “contributed” $120 million to the project, which will have a price tag in the vicinity of a half a billion dollars. Mighty big of you, Bill Bidwell. It probably about covered the cost of the retractable field.

The Cardinals’ owner is notorious for throwing around nickels like they were manhole covers. They are under the salary cap every year. For 2006 they are some $30 million under the projected cap. It will be interesting to see if he will put the cash that his mostly taxpayer funded palace into the team or into his pocket. The betting is that the manholes don’t travel far from Bidwell’s pocket.

The Redskins are a game behind a group of 7-5 teams that are fighting for the last Wild Card playoff spot. While it was pointed out here earlier this week that they might be able to afford one more loss and snare a playoff spot with nine wins, this is note one of the games that they can afford to lose. They have to build something called a winning streak, something they haven’t done since the first three games of the season. And you just can’t lose to the Cardinals, one of the worst teams in the league.

Out of the five phases of the game—passing, pass defense, running, run defense, and special teams—Arizona is respectable in one of them, the first one. Kurt Warner is finding Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin often enough to be able to string together four 300-yard passing games in his last five outings. Their special teams play was very good, especially the kicking, until Neil Rackers pulled a calf muscle in practice and wound up on the shelf. But they are dead last in the NFL in running the ball and mediocre at best defensively.

Washington hopes to be able to keep Warner and company off the field and control the clock by running Clinton Portis left, right, and up the middle. Look for them to go with the pitchout to Portis, the play that resulted in his 47-yard touchdown run in St. Louis, a bit more often than they have been.

The Redskins won against a mediocre team on the road last week somewhat easily. The game was not quite as close as even the 24-9 final score would indicate. They should be able to do the same this week. Unlike some times in the past when the Redskins have had the superior team and have gone into Arizona or St. Louis expecting to win easily only to be trapped, they won’t get caught looking past this game.

Redskins 28, Cardinals 14

Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Strategery

Michael Wilbon may be a Bears fan but he does know football and the Redskins pretty well. He hit it right on the money in his column on Monday morning:

They should have been doing this all along. The Washington Redskins should have committed to pounding people with their running game from Week 1. Throwing is nice if you've got Peyton Manning tossing it to Marvin Harrison or Carson Palmer pitching it to Chad Johnson. But when your starting linemen are from the likes of Michigan, Auburn, Texas and Wisconsin and when your $50 million running back stands on the sideline pestering the coaches for more carries, it's clear the personality of the team is screaming, "Let us run !"

The long bomb, which was supposed to be the new thrust of the offense going in to the season, certainly has its appeal. It's quick it's easy, you really don't have to work for your seven points. It fits with the instant-gratification tone of our current society. It became even more appealing after Mark Brunell unloaded a pair of them to Santana Moss in Dallas and the Redskins got a win after having been outplayed for 55 minutes.

After that, however, the long pass became more of a novelty. Much of the passing yardage came on yards after the catch by the likes of Moss. Although the passes weren't long in distance they were high in number compared to runs. Against Denver Joe Gibbs called 57 passes and 22 runs (note that sacks and Brunell runs are counted as passing plays as that was the play call). In that case, the Redskins did trail by 11 midway through the third quarter so there was some reason to throw more, although Clinton Portis was having a good day against his old team, gaining 100 yards on 20 carries. It was the next week in KC that many started to question the play calling. In a game that never had more than a seven-point spread in the score, there were 47 pass plays called to 28 runs.

It was during the November three-game losing streak, all agonizing, close losses, that the play calling really came into question. Yes they did have to play catch up against Tampa Bay for part of the game but Clinton Portis had 107 yards on 12 carries in the first half but after the Redskins tied the game at 21 early in the third quarter he got only eight more carries.
The term “abandon the run” was thrown around even more after the next game. With Washington up 13-3 at the half, Portis had 17 carries for 70 yards. Portis got five carries for 22 yards in the second half as the lead slipped away and the Redskins lost.

It was against the Chargers that Gibbs decided that if this team was going to turn it around it would be doing so via the ground game. For the first time all year Portis had more rushing attempts than Brunell had passing attempts. It almost worked, but they couldn't get some clock-killing first downs when they needed them and they couldn't hold the best running back in the game down for all four quarters.

Against the Rams the game plan was in full throwback mode with a ratio of runs to pass of nearly two to one. Certainly, the game plan was influenced by the fact that the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL but the Chargers have one of the best so it's apparent that it wasn't merely a case of taking what the defense gives them. It was an attempt to establish an offensive identity.

Wilbon asks why it took three-fourths of a season to establish such an identity:

If the linemen wanted to run all along and there are three quality running backs to carry the ball, why did it take until the 12th game of a 16-game season to get with the program, to commit completely and totally to the run?

"What lessons do we ever learn early?" Jansen asked with a smile. "With the defense we have, we should be able to do this every week. That has to be the personality of the offense. "

The view here is that rushing attempts will be in the thirties and passes in the teens against Arizona and perhaps even against Dallas. While the Cowboys are in the top 10 in total rushing defense, they are 25th in average yards per carry, giving up 4.2 per rushing attempt. Against the Giants a more diverse offense will be a necessity, but that's a few weeks away. If the run is firmly established by then, the passing game will come.

Nine Wins and In?

Nine Wins and In?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net
There is a belief floating around out there that the Redskins will have to win out in order to achieve their goal of making the playoffs in 2005. This began to be uttered following the Redskins’ overtime loss to the Chargers and it persists even after the Redskins gained their sixth win of the season in St. Louis.

It’s not true. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that a nine-win team will make the NFC playoffs. If the Redskins can get to that level it’s very likely that they would win the tiebreaker against any other nine-win NFC team and snag the final wild card slot.

First, let’s take a quick look at the Redskins chances of winning the NFC East. It’s pretty simple. The Redskins would have to win out, beating Arizona, Dallas, the Giants, and Philadelphia and the Giants would have to lose one of their other three remaining games. That would put Washington, New York and possibly Dallas at 10-6. The Redskins would take that 3-way tie because of a better division record, would beat the Giants head to head because of the 5-1 division record and would have the head to head sweep over Dallas.

A sweep of their remaining games is unlikely, however, if only because winning four in a row is tough to do for even a very good team in the NFL and the Redskins don’t meet anyone’s definition of “very good”. Even three of four is a tall order, but certainly not impossible so the nine-win scenarios are worth exploring even though they’re somewhat complex.

What’s not complex is why the Redskins are likely to win a tiebreaker with any other nine-win team. The reason is their 0-4 record against AFC teams this year. Huh? How do losses help you make the playoffs?

Of course, they don’t but since all of the other teams who would be in that nine-win mix have at least one of their wins vs. an AFC team it means that the Redskins will have accomplished all nine of their wins vs. the NFC. As no other team in the Wild Card hunt can gain more than eight NFC wins, that will give Washington the better conference record, the second tiebreaker (the first is head to head) over every other nine-win team.

With four games to go and about a half a dozen other teams involved there are countless scenarios, so we’re going to make a couple of assumptions to clarify things. Let’s award the NFC South crown to 9-3 Carolina Panthers and the first Wild Card to the 8-4 Tampa Bay Bucs. That leaves the Redskins chasing three 7-5 teams, Dallas, Atlanta, and Minnesota, for the final playoff spot.

Let’s also assume that one of the Redskins’ three wins to get to nine is over Dallas. It’s possible for Washington to make it if their one loss is to the Cowboys, but that makes the picture a whole lot cleaner because it pulls the Redskins into a tie with Dallas with a head to head sweep in hand. And we’ll also figure that the Eagles, 5-6 entering Monday night’s game against Seattle, won’t be able to ride Mike McMahon to the nine wins necessary to be in this mix.

The math is simple, really. Washington needs three wins to get to nine. The other three teams have to win three in order to stay ahead of a Washington team that would beat them in the tiebreakers. A 2-2 finish will not do for Atlanta, Minnesota and Dallas. Here is who they play:

Atlanta:
Mon 12/12 New Orleans 9:00 pm Sun 12/18 at Chicago 8:30 pm Sat 12/24 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Sun 1/1 Carolina 1:00 pm

Minnesota:
Sun 12/11 St. Louis 1:00 pm Sun 12/18 Pittsburgh 1:00 pm Sun 12/25 at Baltimore 8:30 pm Sun 1/1 Chicago 1:00 pm

Dallas:
Sun 12/11 Kansas City 4:15 pm Sun 12/18 at Washington 4:15 pm Sat 12/24 at Carolina 1:00 pm Sun 1/1 St. Louis 8:30 pm

It’s not hard to see the Falcons lose to Chicago and Carolina, Minnesota losing to Pittsburgh and Chicago and the Cowboys falling in Carolina after losing to the Redskins.

By the same token, seeing how things have gone this year, it’s not hard to see the Redskins losing two of their last four either, making this whole discussion moot. But that’s why they play the games and why it is a virtual certainty that there will be games with playoff implications at FedEx Field in December.

Game Blog Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

Against the Niners, Clinton Portis turned a cartwheel after scoring a rushing touchdown. Today, he turned one while in the process of scoring the touch, going in the air and heels over head into the end zone.

Redskins 17-7. This sounds hauntingly familiar—a 10-point fourth-quarter lead. The defense needs to make a play or at least stuff them Rams three and out and give the offense a chance to put this one away.

I guess that hand transplant worked out OK for Robert Royal.

Chris Clemons is a QB-seeking machine. Had Fitzpatrick been able to scoot to a first down on that Rams series after the Washington TD, it gives the Rams some life. But Clemons chased him down and made the stop and, although Bryan Barker got off a booming punt that has the Redskins pinned back, Washington has a chance to run out a good chunk of the 11:59 remaining.

I wouldn’t define four seconds as  “good chunk”. A disastrous safety by Brunell.

Turnabout is fair play as the Rams fumble it back after the free kick. That one was on Fitzpatrick as much as the other one was on Brunell. It looked for a second here like the Rams were going to recover, but the ball squirted by Jackson and Renaldo Wynn got the recovery. It’s time to go in for the kill.

Perfect. About six minutes burned off of the clock and a touchdown. This is the way that this offense is supposed to work with the opposing defense getting worn out and the Redskins line dishing out the punishment on the way to the end zone.

Of course, this offensive philosophy would work great every week if the Redskins played the Rams defense every week.

Carlos Rogers has arrived. A key interception doesn’t quite seal the deal, but it gives the Washington offense, riding the back of one Rock Cartwright, a chance to do so.

Game Blog Vs. Rams Third Quarter

Third Quarter

I suppose it’s a bit harsh to get on Antonio Brown about this, but what is he doing fielding a punt inside the five. I guess he was focused on catching the ball and he wasn’t quite sure where he was, but you have to let that one go.

More YAC by Cooley as he picks up another first down. It helps that the Rams are just not a very good tackling team and not a very good defensive team, period.

A good field position drive by Washington, I suppose, getting out of the hole after Brown fi