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The Draft–A Different Angle on Tiebreakers

Dec 31, 2004, 12:16 AM EST

Well, last week it was playoff scenarios. We now go quickly to looking at where the Redskins might draft.

Unlike playoff tiebreakers, which tries to identify factors that indicate that one team with the same record as another was inferior, the draft tiebreakers try to identify the worse of the tied teams. The NFL does that by positioning tied teams in inverse order of their strength of schedule. In other words, the team that played the weaker schedule will get to draft ahead of a team with the same record that had a weaker strength of schedule. Things like head to head and conference or division record have no bearing on deciding draft order

Thanks again to Kevin Mac on WarpathInsiders.com for doing the nitty-gritty work to come up with the following information:

Team Wins SOS* Next week

  • 1 SanFran 2 113 Patriots
  • 2 Cleveland 3 140 Houston
  • 3 Tennessee 4 124 Detroit
  • 4 Miami 4 130 Baltimore
  • 5 Arizona 5 108 Tampa
  • 6 Tampa 5 113 Arizona
  • 7 Chicago 5 113 Packers
  • 8 Wash 5 115 Vikings
  • 9 Giants 5 124 Dallas
  • 10 Oakland 5 138 Jags
  • 11 Detroit 6 120 Titans
  • 12 Dallas 6 121 Giants

Sorry that this doesn’t come up very clearly, but the sites that this blog appears on just don’t handle tables well. Still, you can see the draft position if the season ended today, the team name, the number of wins it has, the number of combined wins its opponents has (note that this was done before the Monday night game between Philly and the Rams) and its opponent on Sunday.

If the Redskins lose on Sunday, it’s possible but unlikely that they will draft third, depending on if Miami and Tennessee both win and how the opponents of the other teams that finish in the five-win pool do. A position in the six hole is more likely.

If Redskins win on Sunday they probably will draft somewhere in the 8 to 10 range as it’s unlikely that the SOS for Detroit and Dallas will drop enough to get to be more favorable than that of the Redskins and some other teams will five losses will also win, getting the Redskins into the mix with those teams as well.

No official “root for” list for this game, but I just wanted to make you aware of the situation.

  1. mbarnes202 - Jan 2, 2005 at 12:02 PM

    Just a follow-up comment on Draft tie-breakers for non-playoff teams– in subsequent rounds, each team “moves up” one spot from the previous round, and the team that had the #1 pick among tied teams moves to the bottom, e.g., if the Redskins pick #1 among all 5-11 teams in Round 1, they’ll pick last among 5-11 teams in round 2, and second to last among 5-11 teams in round 3, etc.

  2. mbarnes202 - Jan 2, 2005 at 4:02 PM

    Just a follow-up comment on Draft tie-breakers for non-playoff teams– in subsequent rounds, each team “moves up” one spot from the previous round, and the team that had the #1 pick among tied teams moves to the bottom, e.g., if the Redskins pick #1 among all 5-11 teams in Round 1, they’ll pick last among 5-11 teams in round 2, and second to last among 5-11 teams in round 3, etc.

  3. Anonymous - Jan 3, 2005 at 5:28 PM

    By that calculation we should drafting 10th.

    There are 7 teams with worse records. Detroit and Arizona have easier SoS and same record as the Skins.

  4. Anonymous - Jan 3, 2005 at 9:28 PM

    By that calculation we should drafting 10th.

    There are 7 teams with worse records. Detroit and Arizona have easier SoS and same record as the Skins.

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